By Dr Chinua Akukwe
Africa, the cradle of human civilization, appears set once again to become a principal bastion of economic prosperity. This may seem far-fetched for a continent that although accounting for 11 per cent of the global population, it generates only two per cent of current global economic output and less than one per cent of global trade.  That Africa with 24 per cent of the global burden of disease but only three per cent of the global health workforce will play a central role in the global economy is bound to raise eyebrows.

However, the potential of Africa is almost limitless in the foreseeable future for multiple reasons. According to recent reports, the future of Africa is not only incredible but potentially limitless. I briefly review multiple reasons for the growing optimism about the future of Africa.

Africa’s economy is projected to grow at reasonably robust levels during the next five decades. A steady growth in both GDP and GDP per capita is likely in Africa.  Africa’s GDP will likely grow from $1.7 trillion in 2010 to $15 trillion in 2060.  

GDP per capita will increase from $1,667 in 2010 to $5,600 in 2060. The shorter term scenario also looks promising: Africa’s GDP in 2020 will likely grow to $2.6 trillion. Most of the economic growth will be due to long term gains from ongoing political and economic reforms, strong returns from commodities market in a continent that accounts for 30 per cent of all global minerals, rise in foreign direct investments, the increase of megacities and the more than one billion Africans of working age by 2040.  

The middle class in Africa is growing at a fast pace. Africa’s middle class, defined as individuals capable of discretionary spending of $2-20 per day, tripled in the last 30 years to 313 million individuals. The middle class now constitute 34 per cent of the continent’s population, the highest ever recorded rate. By 2060, the middle class may represent 42 per cent of the continent’s population, more than one billion individuals. Africans earning up to $3,000 a year in Africa will likely reach 100 million by 2015.

The impact of the growing middle class is evident in Africa, from magnificent private housing estates to multiple posh cars packed in single family residences, to the enrolment of children in expensive private schools and to the increasing rates of “middle class” non communicable  diseases such as diabetes and hypertension.

Perhaps, a lasting economic impact of the rising middle class is the explosive growth in consumer spending that has made Africa a major destination of the global retail industry. Africa consumer spending may reach $1.4 trillion by 2020, a projected growth of more than 50 per cent from present levels.

South-South trade and economic cooperation will become dominant in the next coming decades. In the last decade, Africa’s export to BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China) increased by a scale of four to about $114 billion. Between 2005 and 2010, middle income South countries generated at least 10 per cent of foreign direct investments in Africa. In addition, South Africa, the largest economy in Africa, is now an established member of the BRIC.

The proportion of South-South trade by 2050 will account for more than 70 per cent of all global trade by China; more than 80 per cent by India and Brazil, respectively and; at least 60 per cent by Russia. South-South development assistance partnerships will also increase in the next coming decades as demonstrated by the current growing profile of China, Brazil, India and South Korea.   

Democracy continues to make steady progress. Dictatorships and autocratic governments are on their last legs in Africa. In 2011, Africa recorded 28 multiparty elections in 17 countries.

Despite well known problems with electoral politics in many parts of Africa, it is safe to assume that the continent has swung significantly away from antidemocratic patterns evident in the 1970s and 1980s that favoured one party rule, big man presidency and farcical national elections. An opposition party is now more likely to win elections and peacefully assume power in Africa than at any time in the last 50 years.   

Africa may become the biggest beneficiary of rapid advances in technology. Rapid uptake of advances in technology may ultimately become the most indispensable factor in Africa’s renaissance in the 21st century. The increasingly literate and educated Africa’s youthful population is adopting social media and telecommunication technologies as the favoured method of communication.

The use of cell phones in Africa will rise from less than 10 per cent current levels to almost 99 per cent by 2060. Advances in biotechnology can dramatically jumpstart Africa’s immense potential in agricultural production through better yields with the use of fewer quantities of water and energy. Advances in nanotechnology can significantly reduce health burdens through smarter, less expensive, streamlined discovery, production and delivery of medicine and other public health goods.

Refinements in information technology can rapidly improve output in the extractive industry sector, leading to more cost-effective and environmentally friendly exploration of oil, gas and solid minerals. Innovations in technology-based management and logistics systems can assist in faster industrialization of the continent, creating better paying jobs, increasing the rolls of the middle class and creating opportunities for greater African ownership of manufacturing processes and distribution channels. In particular, the tourism industry, an area of unparalleled growth potential in the coming decades, will benefit maximally from technology-based management and logistics innovations and efficiencies.

The role of Africans in the Diaspora will be significant. Africa-Africa Diaspora partnership will be a dominant force in the coming decades. New generation of Africans in the Diaspora will expand the frontiers of partnership with Africa far beyond the critical roles played by their parents and grandparents in the independence movements of various African countries over 50 years ago and in the fight against Apartheid in South Africa and colonization struggle in southern Africa more than 30 years ago.

The next phase of this relationship will focus on economic, technical and policy advocacy partnerships. Although Africa and its Diaspora are yet to finalize and streamline modalities of the partnership, the future looks very bright as Diaspora communities around the world seek closer ties with native lands and continents. It is very likely that a well funded public/private Africa Diaspora investment fund or facility will become operational in the next few years to mobilize and facilitate the participation of Africa Diaspora entrepreneurs and professionals in Africa’s development.  

Africa has now made a stand on aid effectiveness. Africa is home to a dizzying array of bilateral and multilateral aid initiatives, corporate social responsibility programs and foundation supported projects. Very little coordination and harmonization occur at country and host community levels.

 In 2011 at the aid conference in Busan, South Korea, Africa delivered its first consensus position on international aid effectiveness focused on: (a) aligning donor commitments to continental priorities and national policies; (b) requesting African countries to go “beyond aid” by maximizing domestic economic output and growth and; (c)

redefining the donor and host country dialogue on aid to focus on equity, inclusiveness, gender equality and effective results on the ground. The Africa consensus is important since international aid is likely to decline in the coming decades as more middle income countries emerge in Africa and donor countries support, decline.    
The author is the former Chair of the Technical Advisory Board of the Africa Center for Health and Human Security at the George Washington University

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