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Johannesburg. Despite robust economic growth over the last decade, political instability remains an ongoing concern for continued growth on the African continent. These concerns were highlighted during a Frontier Advisory seminar in the city that examined the political outlook for the continent in 2012. Although it was generally acknowledged that it is difficult to predict what the year has in store for Africa, it is possible to identify the medium- to long-term trends that threaten political stability in the continent.
South African Institute of International Affairs director Elizabeth Sidiropoulos highlighted these threats. She argued that there were a number of structural issues that Africa needed to overcome before it can take advantage of the increasing foreign investment, particularly from China.
Sidiropoulos explained that the first threat is derived from religious fundamentalism in North Africa and the recent social instability. The situation is no better in sub-Sahara Africa in countries like Nigeria where a Jihadist group, Boko Haram, has been conducting a series of attacks against government and Christian establishments.
She said another challenge was proliferation of arms in the aftermath of the Libyan revolution. Countries particularly at risk are Niger, Chad and some West African states.
On the socioeconomic front, Sidiropoulos argued that urbanisation and the growing number of youth in many countries, if not managed correctly, would soon reach a tipping point that would resemble events similar to those that occurred in countries affected by the Arab Spring.
She put the number of youth aged between 15 and 24 at 200 million, 60 per cent of who are unemployed. At the same time there is growing inequality and social deprivation in the continent.
In eastern Africa, an Islamist militant group, Al-Shabaab, which has links with Al-Qaeda, has been raging terror, rampaging Somalia and causing fear in neighbouring countries of Kenya, Djibout, Ethiopia, Uganda, Rwanda, Tanzania and Burundi.
Political tensions in the Great Lakes, particularly in the Democratic Republic of Congo, following recent highly contested presidential election results also indicate difficult times for the continent.
Of greater consequences have been piracy activities in the Indian Ocean, which has led to the decline of cargo ships travelling into the southern hemisphere. This has inflicted economic difficulties in the region contributing to fueling up inflation.
Election year
Meanwhile, 2012 will see several countries holding elections in what could be a landmark year, particularly for countries such as Angola, Madagascar, Zimbabwe and Kenya. Taking the lead from countries like Cote d’Ivoire, it is unlikely that countries such as Zimbabwe and Kenya would consider going into another power-sharing agreement, as elections are no longer instruments for elite negotiation but rather an expression of the will of the people, noted University of the Witwatersrand’s Gilbert Khadiagala. He argued that this needed to be recognised as an important element for substantive democracy and political stability.
He further stated that Cote d’ Ivoire, as well as Zambia, with its peaceful transition of power from Rupiah Banda to the newly elected President Michael Sata, had set a new precedent to African politics and would be influential in the continents busy election schedule for 2012. (Agencies)
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