By Sylivester Ernest
The Citizen Reporter
Dar es Salaam. President Jakaya Kikwete has received high praise for the way he has handled the issue of the new constitution, with analysts reporting that it has helped restore faith in the ruling CCM.According to the Economic Intelligence Unit (EIU) January report for Tanzania, this places CCM in pole position to continue dominating the country’s politics despite the threat posed by the opposition, especially Chadema.

The specialist publisher also reports that there are chances that divisions in the party may grow, but they will not harm its chances of winning the 2015 presidential election. There is some consolation for the opposition too, especially Chadema. The report says it will secure greater representation despite CCM’s dominance.  

EIU, which has been a prime source of information on economic and political trends worldwide for 60 years, reports that Chadema, which has been trying to establish a more high-profile role since the 2010 General Election, will dominate the headlines every now and then. So will the discontent with domestic economic conditions.
But both factors will not present a major threat to the overall political stability of the country “unless they are badly mismanaged by the dominant CCM”.

The good news for State House continues with the observation that President Kikwete’s willingness to spearhead the constitution review process and restructure his party has given him and his party bonus points, especially among cynics.

But the opposition’s expectations of the new dispensation may be dashed, the report says, given the ruling party’s fears that it could lose more ground should it allow this to happen.“The opposition’s desire for a constitution according less power to the presidency and a more level playing field in elections is unlikely fully to be realised,” reads the 24-page report, “but should see the 2015 election conducted under at least a slightly fairer constitution.”

But even as CCM—assuming it remains united—will probably triumph in the elections, the opposition is also likely to continue to make gains. “…There is the prospect that a genuine multi-party democracy will start to emerge, ending the CCM’s domination since independence,” the report notes.Mbeya-based political commentator Bernard Mukasa argues that giving the country a relevant law should not be seen as CCM’s gift to the country but a responsibility.

“Yes, there could be credibility, locally and internationally, but Tanzanians need more than that. Have their lives improved? The new law should be drafted in such a way that peoples’ lives improve or the same constitution could be used to remove CCM from power.”

He adds: “Tanzanians cannot eat the new law, which is just a document, but they would be satisfied if that law brings equality, especially economically.”

Political analyst Mwesiga Baregu cautions that the report appears to have misunderstood the political situation, especially within the party, with CCM implementing many reforms that were nonetheless not backed by the majority of members.

“Some Members of Parliament were even against the Constitutional Review 2011 Act Amendment Bill and also the changes the party wants to effect,” the scholar said. “This means whatever President Kikwete is doing might add some credit to his name, not to the party.” Prof Baregu of St Augustine University, who also sits in the Chadema National Executive Committee, dismisses CCM’s efforts as attempts to cling to power against the tide of  “public opinion”.

CCM, he says, has to read the writing on the wall, given that the party is travelling the same path as that of the Kenya African National Union (Kanu) and the Movement for Multiparty Democracy (MMD), which ruled Zambia for 20 years.

Another political scientist based in Dar es Salaam, Mr Emmanuel Chonza, described the new constitution as a weapon to shoot CCM down since the ruling party had misused the current document to make sure it held on to power. “The new law will be a challenge to CCM, trust me,” Mr Chonza said.

The analyst pointed out that the presence within the party ranks of some “big men” suspected of graft was tarnishing its image and the situation was doing the party no favours in its quest to remain in power.

“The process to have one candidate as CCM’s flag bearer will be difficult because of the accusations,” he says.

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