| POLITICAL TRANSITIONS: Are we headed for low voter turnout? | Send to a friend |
| Wednesday, 10 March 2010 12:14 |
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In the last two columns I dealt with the urgent and important issue of the resurgence of coups in Africa. In that contribution, I postulated four types of coups along with their causes, drivers and consequences and drew the conclusion that regardless of the type of coup the causes were rooted in the legitimacy crisis of the African state. By legitimacy we mean a situation in which the state derives and discharges public power from the spontaneous consent of citizens rather than from the coercive force. Others would call this phenomenon ‘system affect’ In a competitive democracy, periodic elections play at least two functions. One is to offer citizens an opportunity to express their preferences for parties, policies and representatives. The other is to legitimise the elected government as an expression of the popular will. That is why everything possible must be done to ensure that elections are not only free and fair but also that the outcomes are acceptable to all. This would be even better served when the losers spontaneously concede victory to the winners. One way of ensuring that election results express the popular will of the majority of the citizens, is to register as many people as are eligible to vote and create conditions that encourage the registered voters to turn out and cast their vote on polling day. Voter turnout is one key indicator of how much confidence people have in the electoral system particularly in its ability to deliver acceptable results. Declining levels of voter turn out, therefore, are a clear indication of decreasing system affect and vice versa. Twenty ten is national elections year in Tanzania and the political temperature is already rising towards fever pitch. While efforts to update the permanent voters register continue there are lingering worries about the possibility of a significant decline in voter turnout this year. This specifically emanates from the very low voter participation in the civic elections which were held last October. The low turn out, in this case, was attributed, in large part, to the popular perceptions that those elections were administered by the government under TAMISEMI and therefore the results were all but a foregone conclusion. Election data also show a declining trend from 76.5% of the registered vote in 1995 to 72.2% in 2005. In a recent discussion with my students on the prospects for improved voter turnout in the October national elections the majority were not at all optimistic. The following are some of the reasons discussed by the group. Two categories of reasons were advanced in trying to explain the pessimistic predictions. One category is those reasons that underlie the long-term declining participation trend. The other is those arising from short-term developments rooted in the assessment of the performance of the government and the parliament over the last four years. The longer-term reasons likely to dampen particularly politically conscious voter participation revolve around the constitution. The government’s persistent and largely irrational resistance (against informed legal opinion going back to Nyalali), to re-write or undertake fundamental changes in the constitution constitutes a major disincentive. This would provide a constitutional framework and political system that promotes democracy and is consistent with a competitive multiparty system. Other reasons falling under constitutional arrangements include; issues concerning the formation and composition of an independent National Electoral Commission, the independent candidacy, the electoral system which should include elements of constituency based a well as proportional representation to better reflect preferences by popular vote. Politically, the perceived (and real?) lack of clear policy differences between political parties reduces choices to personalities creating cynicism among voters. The shorter term issues that are likely to keep some people away from the ballot box include; the poor performance of the government particularly with respect to control of the nations resources and bringing about ‘maisha bora kwa kila mtanzania’; the abrupt termination of the Richmond debate and general lack of tangible progress on all other grand corruption scandals; the recent creation of the Constituency Development Funds, largely perceived as yet another avenue for corruption and political patronage. The recent revelations of double payments of allowances to MPs and their general preoccupation with their incomes at the expense of the welfare of citizens is another damper. In brief, that is the political landscape in which the country is proceeding toward the next election. Unless such perceptions or some of the facts on the ground change between now and October, I am afraid the dire predictions are likely to be born out; further indicating that the country is in a process of democratic reversal rather than consolidation. Add this page to your favorite Social Bookmarking websites           |
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