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By Andrew Bomani
 THE above words featured as a headline in the tabloid Sun newspaper of Britain, summarizing the remark of 10 January 1979 on the famous Winter of Discontent by Jim Callaghan, a former British Prime Minister: 'I don't think other people in the world would share the view (that) there is mounting chaos.'
Tanzania is now in another election year.
Any serious citizen should be pondering on the road ahead of us. It is my estimation that our country is in a crisis of proportions. Of course, it would be expected that President Kikwete and any other leader for that matter would by propensity be in sync with the Callaghan take of things. Indeed, only recently whilst on a state visit to the Republic of Turkey, Kikwete told a group of Tanzanians that "hali nyumbani ni shwari."
The problems though that faced Britain at the time were evidently, not mildly comparable to ours.
My primary focus in analyzing our 'crisis' today is purely from the perspective of politics. And for a very good reason so I believe, for it has been noted before that, "politics is at the centre of gravity of development."
Tanzania is now in its eighteenth year of political pluralism following a long period of single party rule. I posit that there is precious little to write home about!
Before going further, it is prudent to borrow the words of a Danish philosopher, Kierkagaard, who wrote: "Life must be lived forward but it can only be understood backwards." I shall attempt at examining particular historical happenings that may shed light on why we are where we are today and what should follow...
As said above, Tanzania has now being practicing 'plural' politics for a close to two decades. My simple point of contention is that a yardstick of 'real progress' on the national development front is come election time, specifically at succession time!
To illustrate this, if there are inordinate levels of anxiety about the place, then something is quite amiss regarding the state of affairs! There are countless examples of countries in our region that at the time of going to polls, are virtually bursting at the seams!
Indeed, none other than Tanzania's third President, Benjamin Mkapa, in his opening address to the ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi National Executive Committee meeting on the 5th September 2004 titled "Ushupavu wa Uongozi" stated the following: " Tupende tusipende,hofu miongoni mwa raia ni hisia na hata kielelezo cha mapungufu ya uongozi."
The intriguing question though is was Mkapa engaging in a self-introspection or just looking at the lower echelons of power? Either way to me, that is to be taken as an indictment of sorts on his leadership of ten years!
To begin to get a clearer sense of our predicament, I propose the year 1995 serve as a focal point. And by no means am I absolving the first two Presidents; their periods in power certainly deserve close evaluation which will come at a later stage.
But 1995, being the first multi-party poll since its re-introduction after years of oligarchy would therefore be no mean one. CCM had to think long and hard - thanks no less to Mwalimu Nyerere- on how it would go about its presidential nomination business in a new era despite still enjoying a very commanding position.
A method of nomination was eventually arrived at that would ensure a semblance of internal democracy and could even well serve as a model for other several top-controlled political parties on our tortured continent!
Alas, what ensued despite some saying politics is a dirty game, was truly a "miscarriage of democracy", so to speak, that resulted in a relatively little known Benjamin Mkapa, a.k.a. Mr Clean, being 'parachuted' to the top. Jakaya Kikwete, it is well known defeated Mkapa at the CCM Congress only to be told by the Godfather of CCM and his cohorts that another round had to take place to ensure a particular threshold was attained!
In addition he was allegedly told not to lose hope as age was on his side for the next time round.
But even more important, that race should be remembered for the REAL heavyweights that were thwarted at the nascent stage, that could have resulted in the final outcome taking another shape altogether for the better, not least for the consolidation of democracy!
So, with CCM having performed poorly at the much awaited test of democracy in 1995, the future of this ideal within the party and out of it would be a cause of concern! It would be something misguided indeed to expect the party to adhere to democratic principles in the country and yet within practice 'guided' democracy! It really would need the Head of State and CCM Chairman to shake off any sense of inferiority and reach out wide and far to counter the rumblings of discontent!
It should be noted though that fairly early on during the 1995 general election campaign, a presidential debate was organized that could be truly be dubbed as 'historic'. A glimmer of hope was built in the country that we could actually be on the path to "serious" politics!
A few months following that debate, Mkapa was indeed elected with 62% of the votes and hit the ground running! No effort would be lost in distinguishing the "Third- Phase" government as one that had zero-tolerance for graft; Mkapa would himself declare his assets as a key plank of CCM's commitment to fight corruption.
A serious pointer though of not so happy things to come was the reaction by the government to the epoch-making Judge Robert Kisanga-led committee on constitutional review. They were to be severely lambasted for their pains by none other than the Head of State. My understanding is that by them proposing certain changes, the committee overstepped their mark and that they were only tasked with collecting the wananchi's views. Quite a mockery really of the work of a committee!
And as if it ended there, come the year 2000, Bunge was presented with a few proposed and contentious amendments that involved for one doing away with the constitutional requirement that the winner of a presidential election be required to attain above 51%. It was to be a case of simple majority that ironically is not even in function in CCM. Furthermore, the President would be empowered to nominate up to ten individuals to parliament as well as even the cabinet on the pretext chiefly of furthering "talents".
The subsequent hue and cry that followed would simply fall on deaf ears. My gut instinct at that moment was that poor Tanzania was finding itself sinking deeper into the all too familiar story on our continent of the backward politics of patronage. The perverting of a constitution can only result in a negation of democracy that we much aspire to enhance!
Additionally, in the year 2000 when Mkapa was standing for renomination as presidential candidate, a potential challenger from Mara region was brushed off, despite him not in any way being of substance! As is said in Britain, these were symptoms of a "control freak" at the helm.
Fast forward then to 2005 and Mkapa's tenure of office is ending! Apart from Mkapa touching on the 'shortcomings of leadership' mentioned earlier, the man also expressed alarm at all the intense personal interest being exhibited in the presidency by various bigwigs. He would ask in Kiswahili: "Kulikoni"?
In all, I'd say this is a blot on his leadership and if you like, a case of the chickens coming home to roost! Leadership is essentially about nurturing TALENT at all necessary levels such that the political actors know exactly where they stand and don't pursue things that are well beyond them!!
It is against such a backdrop, I think usage of the words 'crisis in the offing' in 2005 would be in order! With the belief that if one ascends to the highest office in the land then 'ameula', such indeed was the fierce nature of the race for IKULU in CCM that a procedure that existed in 1995 - at the strong behest of Nyerere - that a period of one month should exist between the short-listing of candidates by the CCM National Executive Committee and the election by Congress was done away with completely.
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