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By Lucas Liganga
Presidential candidates on a marathon 71-day campaign trail have been making extravagant promises that have prompted analysts and political commentators to warn their outcome could be frustration among the citizenry and disaffection towards the next crop of leaders after the October 31 polls.
In the last two weeks alone of the campaigns across the country, politicians have stopped at nothing to declare what they would do if elected. It is all in what are seen as “desperate” efforts to woo the over 20 million registered voters expected to cast their vote in the General Election.
The commentators are particularly concerned that some politicians are merely out to entice the electorate and are not telling the truth, since most don’t even bother to tell how they plan to implement their huge promises.
Chama Cha Mapinduzi’s Jakaya Kikwete who is in the race to clinch a second and last five-year presidential term has been promising a string of goodies at every stop.
Among the highlights of President Kikwete’s campaign promises so far is to buy a new passenger ship to replace the 500-seat capacity MV Bukoba that capsized in Lake Victoria in 1996, killing at least 1000 people. There is no record for the MV Bukoba cost but it is believed the government would spend billions of shillings to deliver this ship over the unspecified period.
Mr Kikwete has also said his government would supply 400 motorcycle ambulances (bajaj) for ward dispensaries. That would translate to some Sh2 billion.
The CCM flag bearer has also promised, among other things, to build international standard airports in Kigoma and Bukoba as well as write off the Sh5 billion debts owed to creditors by the moribund Nyanza Farmers Cooperative Societies.
The opposition presidential candidates, Dr Willibrod Slaa (Chadema) and Prof Ibrahim Lipumba of Civic United Front (CUF) have equally committed to accomplish what would be daunting tasks if they unseat CCM.
Dr Slaa has promised to educate Tanzanian children for free from primary to Form 6 in a universal high school education plan, but was outdone here by Prof Lipumba whose party said free education would be available up to university level.
Quick arithmetic shows that with an enrollment of 1.02 million students in local O-Level secondary schools alone by 2007, some Sh70 billion would be needed each year to meet expenses of all the students, whose number is now much higher. Currently, a boarder in a public school pays over Sh70,000 per year while a day scholar is charged Sh35,000.
For tuition fees alone, and if the current float of over Sh100 billion to issue fees and part upkeep for qualifying university students, a CUF government would have to set aside each year some nearly Sh2000 billion, or about a quarter of all the budget allocated this year to the ministry of education and vocational training to pay a year’s fees.
Prof Lipumba also promised to build 500km of tarmac roads each year of his presidency. That would be 2500km for his five-year term. In monetary terms, the tarmac road works for every year would translate to Sh5 billion.
Interviewed last week by the Sunday Citizen over the growing list of campaign promises, some commentators said the politicians should be transparent in explaining issues such as the costs to be involved.
“Free education, for example, is untenable in many respects,” said Dr Johnson Ishengoma of the Department of Educational Planning and Administration of the University of Dar es Salaam.
Mr Rakesh Rajani, head of Twaweza East Africa, an initiative that seeks to enable people in East Africa to access information and use it to make a difference, said the hardest part of promise often came in the implementation.
Quoting the most recent Public Expenditure Tracking Surveys, Mr Rajani said the government has failed to provide even half the capitation grant it was supposed to have sent to primary schools.
“Politicians should explain the basis or evidence for the policies they envisage. Lots of other things are not done ostensibly due to lack of funds. So it behooves all politicians – whether CCM, Chadema or CUF – to explain the numbers, what will their promises cost, and where they are going to get the money from,” observed Mr Rajani.
For example, he said, the government has promised to deliver a science laboratory in every ward school and ensure better-qualified teachers, including with Bachelor of Arts degrees for the schools.
“Both these sound useful – but since there are many other things that could also be done such as provision of water, pit latrines, increase in service training, strengthen inspection and create vouchers -- it is incumbent upon the proponents to explain why what they want to do is the best course of action for Tanzania, and what was the basis or evidence for their thinking.”
A World Bank official who wished no to be named said a lot of the promises being made would hit the wall for most likely, there would be no money to implement them.
But the source said some, like Mr Kikwete’s promise for construction of an international airport in Kigoma would be a mere formality “because the project is already under way and money has been provided under the World Bank funding. The bank is putting in $22million with the government contributing $4.5million.
The official said his major worry is that the over commitment of on-going roads projects do not match funding. He said there are about 25 ongoing government financed road projects, that requires at least Sh500 billion this financial year while in the 2010/2011 budget there is only about Sh100 billion provision.”
“I have no idea how the gap will be covered. I fear that a rude awakening will come after the elections,” cautioned the World Bank official.
A research analyst with Uwazi at Twaweza East Africa, Ms Rose Aiko said such promise often meant more taxes from the already burned and few tax payers.”It also means more aid, or more borrowing for the future generation to pay.”
Meanwhile, residents of Musoma district in Mara region have expressed concern over some of the promises, saying they were difficult to implement.
They said President Kikwete was giving fresh promises while his government had failed to fulfill the ones he gave in 2005 in the area.
Mr Mahende Mwita said while the President has promised to construct roads to tarmac level in the regions he has visited in Mwanza and Kagera, he still owes the Musoma people a similar road through the Serengeti.
Another resident George John said in the 2005 campaigns President Kikwete had promised Tanzanians a better life for all but that the economic conditions for most has worsened.
Additional reporting by Beldina Nyakeke
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