Dar es Salaam. Economists Intelligence Unit (EIU) has been announced as the winner of global 2019 best analysts forecast award organised by Barcelona based FocusEconomics.
The annual awards recognise analysts whose forecasts whose works are considered as most accurate.
The statement issued by FocusEconomics on Wednesday May 15, 2019 says awards recognize the most accurate forecasters for the main macroeconomic indicators across 92 countries and 23 commodity prices in 2018.
The Economist Intelligence Unit and Oxford Economics topped the list with 39 and 38 first place rankings for the main indicators in various countries and commodity prices.
“To identify the top economic forecasters, FocusEconomics assessed the accuracy of the forecasts submitted by over 350 institutions to its Consensus Forecast survey over the course of 24 months,” says a statement.
“The Analyst Forecast Awards demonstrate the outstanding work of the economic analysts on our panel. We are pleased to recognise the accuracy of the forecasts and the value of economic research provided by the institutions participating in our Consensus Forecast,” says Arne Pohlman, Chief Economist at FocusEconomics.
Among the winning institutions are the world’s most renowned international banks and economic research firms such as Capital Economics, Citigroup Global Markets, Euromonitor International, EIU, Fitch Solutions, HSBC, JPMorgan and Oxford Economics, along with many others.
FocusEconomics surveys over 1,000 economic experts from national and international banks, top financial institutions and economic research companies every month to obtain their projections for the main macroeconomic indicators and commodity prices and elaborate the Consensus Forecast, which is the lynchpin of the company’s monthly FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast reports.
“We assess the accuracy of the forecasts submitted to our Consensus Forecast survey by ranking forecasters according to the average of their discounted forecast errors. Errors are defined as the absolute difference between an individual forecast and the actual result of the macroeconomic indicator/price of the commodity,” Pohlman said.
“To identify the best forecasters, we use forecasts submitted to our monthly survey over the course of 24 months. For example, in assessing the forecast accuracy for 2018 GDP, we take into consideration forecasts collected in the January 2017–December 2018 period. The outturn we use corresponds to the first official estimate, the release of which varies according to the frequency of the indicator.”