OPINION: Transition in African regimes: Coincidence or wind of change?

In less than ten years, Africa has seen a series of endogenous political disruptions that have resulted in regime change in countries across the continent. From Tunisia and Egypt (2010-2011) to Ethiopia, Algeria, and Sudan (2018-2019), could these events signify something bigger than mere coincidence? Each of these countries has witnessed similar patterns of political and economic conditions which triggered prolonged discontentment to tip over into open revolt.

In Tunisia, Mohammed Bouazizi has gone down in history as the spark that ignited the revolution famously known as Arab Spring. The street vendor set himself on fire in December 2010 after a confrontation about a business fine with a police officer, who according to the witness, confiscated Mr Bouazizi’s merchandise stand, and then humiliated him in public.

His act did not emanate from the incident with a police officer, but was an accumulation of resentment towards economic hardships, which were exacerbated by social injustices, that eventually turned into countrywide demonstrations. As protesters overtook the streets, the then Tunisian President Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali was forced to step down and flee into exile.

The movement resonated in Egypt in 2011, leading to President Hosni Mubarak of Egypt to step down as well. A number of people who were interviewed in the aftermath of the uprisings cited lack of economic and political inclusion as among the reasons that took them to the streets.

Equitable justice system

Seven years later, protesters poured into the streets in Ethiopia demanding a more equitable justice system and more inclusive economic opportunities particularly for the marginalised Oromos citizens who constitute 35 per cent of the country’s population.

By the time this was happening, scores of opposition politicians and journalists had been jailed, and several casualties occurred from clashes between protesters and security forces.

Under increasing pressure, the then Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn resigned, an act that paved the way for Mr Abiy Ahmed to take the reins as the new Head of State.

In a little less than a year after the Ethiopian transition, Algeria erupted into massive demonstrations after 82-year-old President Abdelaziz Bouteflika announced that he would run for another term after twenty years in power. Some of the protesters were quoted by BBC saying “we are not afraid anymore. We are young, and full of bravery”, demanding Mr Bouteflika who had already overstayed his tenure, step down especially due to his age and ailing condition.

Along the same period, President Omar al Bashir of Sudan, was forced to step down after months of protests which brought to an end his 30-year rule. The protestors rhymed the same chorus as observed in other countries, poor economic conditions and constrained democratic space to air their grievances.

Last year, Reuters reported Sudan’s economy to have reached a critical stage, as inflation rose to 64 per cent with an extreme shortage of foreign currency. In response, the citizens cast the blame on Mr Bashir’s government for failure to handle the economy and demanded change.

Why is it important for Africa to pay attention to these trends? They signify something bigger than protests. They echo existent challenges; frustration over poor economic conditions, and constrained space to air their grievances and receive due redress.

All of these have taken place under authoritarian regimes. Times have changed significantly for power and politics in Africa. The citizens’ expectations (especially the youth), of their governments and leadership, are much higher, and too volatile to be ignored.

Citizen like Mohammed Bouazizi, from struggling poor families working hard to make ends meet, deal with constant extortion for bribes, and arbitrary punishments by security forces. When they turn to the institutions responsible for administering justice, they are given the cold shoulder.

These incidences not only give the rest of the continent a cautionary signal of an inevitable change, but also a lesson of how to respond. Ethiopia is the best example of leaderships’ appropriate response.

Soon after taking office, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed assured his country of inclusive political participation by working “to make the security and intelligence institutions free from political partiality,” as quoted by the Washington Post, while freeing political prisoners, as well as initiating inclusive economic reforms.

Sustainable development

Africa cannot afford another decade of being mired in poverty and uncertainty while the rest of the world sprints towards the achievement of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

As Prime Minister Abiy says “use ideas not weapons”, it is necessary for African leadership to invest in inclusive and responsive institutions that listen to and adequately address their citizens’ needs.

Africa’s formidable force lies in ordinary citizens like Mohammed Bouazizi being empowered by their institutions to equally participate in economic and political processes and contribute towards development.

As the old adage goes “a house divided against itself shall not stand”; it is in the best interest of African countries to look at the current trend as a moment to build bridges, especially with their discontented and marginalised citizens.

Mhando Mbughuni is an expert in research and policy analysis