Kalonzo: What next for Azimio and UDA?

January 15. Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka summoned his party’s MPs, MCAs and grassroots organisers from Machakos, Kitui and Makueni counties to his rural home in Yatta.

Save for a snake that rudely interrupts the proceedings (perhaps to remind the congregants of another deadly snake on the ballot), the announcement that Kalonzo will be on the presidential ticket in August is not surprising. The first time I heard, to my considerable surprise, that Kalonzo had presidential ambitions was in 2002.

President Daniel arap Moi was working to deliver Uhuru Kenyatta into office while trying to counter a raging rebellion within Kanu against his choice. In a meeting with a circle of his top aides, Moi reportedly remarked: “Watch Kalonzo. He’s extremely ambitious.” Indeed, as it turned out, Kalonzo, upon realising he had been passed over, joined the Kanu lot that bolted to Narc to fight Moi’s pick.

Ahead of the Yatta get-together last week, there was a report that a One Kenya Alliance (OKA) “technical” committee had settled on Kalonzo as the most viable candidate for the alliance.

Two things happened after that. One, allies of ANC’s Musalia Mudavadi rejected the committee’s decision.

Two, Kalonzo immediately summoned his Yatta meeting, which enthroned him to be a presidential candidate.

Mudavadi absented himself from the meeting of OKA principals in Elementaita, where the presidential flagbearer was presumably to be announced.

Sense of entitlement

With their odd sense of entitlement, Mudavadi’s ANC handlers made it clear it was either him or no OKA.

Kalonzo was essentially sending the same warning from his Yatta home, and with numbers the Vihiga man can’t show. Let’s get to the bottom of this.

Officially, ANC has 14 MPs. But a considerable chunk of them have defected to Azimio, including the party’s deputy leader Ayub Savula.

Wiper has 23 MPs and four senators. They are a close-knit lot with the exception of a couple or so who strayed to Tangatanga. Kakamega Senator Cleophas Malala, Mudavadi’s most ardent cheerleader, says the Luhya are more than the Kamba in population.

That’s true. But their voting pattern is mercenary. The Kamba are politically more potent. They stick together. They don’t scatter their votes like the Luhya do. That’s the difference. And it is the reason Raila had to pick Kalonzo in 2013 and 2017 as his running mate even though Mudavadi was on his side in 2017 with his mythical numbers.

Senator Malala was being absolutely comical when he averred Mudavadi has political seniority over Kalonzo. Let’s go back to history.

Kalonzo was elected MP in 1985, Mudavadi in 1989. Kalonzo has been vice-president for five years, Mudavadi for two months. Kalonzo founded the predecessor of his Wiper party, ODM-K, in 2007. Mudavadi formed ANC in 2015. Come on, let’s be serious. In 2013, Mudavadi was played poker by Uhuru who had promised to give way to him but then suddenly changed his mind.

Actually, Uhuru also short-circuited Kalonzo who, as the vice-president, expected to inherit the presidency from Mwai Kibaki.

Kalonzo as the pre-eminent player in Ukambani has never been in doubt. Whatever you think of him – a melon, fence-sitter, name it – that’s the fact. The question now is what his candidacy bodes for Azimio and UDA. He’s not going to win, and I suspect he knows it. I believe he’s playing for a run-off.

Will his gambit work?

It will depend on the electoral turnout. If it is high such as to benefit Azimio and UDA, it won’t work.

If the overall turnout is low, but the Ukambani base brings out a high turnout, a run-off is possible.

Anyway the three Ukambani governors – Charity Ngilu in Kitui, Alfred Mutua in Machakos, and Kivutha Kibwana in Makueni – support Azimio. They’ll chip away votes. In fact, Kibwana has bowed to the inevitable and dropped his presidential bid. For Azimio and UDA, they now must remove Ukambani from their stronghold lists. Personally, I think it’s Raila who stands to lose most from Kalonzo running independently.

In the electoral cycles of 2013 and 2017, Ukambani was a critical component of his vote. To compensate for that loss, he must score very well elsewhere.

Smart and crafty

It’s foolhardy to underrate Kalonzo. He’s smart and crafty. I wonder, has anybody reserved the OKA name with a plan to turn it into a political party? That would be clever politics. Remember the experience Raila underwent when Kalonzo ran away with the original Orange Democratic Party of Kenya (ODM-K) name ahead of the 2007 election? Raila had to look for an alternative home fast, with the name Orange, which became ODM.

Suppose Kalonzo is offered the deputy presidency position by Azimio? Would he take it? I don’t know. All I know is that the Mt Kenya bloc is tethered to that position. Raila is unlikely to change his mind on that. UDA is also unlikely to promise Kalonzo the same seat. So, a runoff must be, in Wiper’s eyes.

UDA will also not escape the repercussions of Kalonzo’s candidacy.