Tanzania’s human development record: Going beyond numbers

In the past decade, Tanzania has done rather well in the human development front. Since 2000, Human Development Index (HDI) grew at an average of 2.36 per cent annually. Its record during 2007-2012 is even better, jumping 15 places up in the HDI, the highest by any country during this period.

Both per capita income (PPP$) and mean years of schooling increased by over six per cent annually.

This is a significant achievement. Yet, life expectancy grew very slowly perhaps owing to diseases including HIV/Aids. While it had a dampening effect on Tanzania’s success in human development, one cannot expect life expectancy to jump at a faster rate quickly.

While the numbers give a rosy picture, they do not reveal all. Per capita income increased by almost 150 per cent since 1990, but poverty fell only marginally, less than 14 per cent during that period. Where has the growth gone? Well not into the hands of the majority poor for sure!

Economic growth does not seem to be inclusive or broad based. The issue of quality of education is well known and debated. An increase of over 150 per cent in mean years of schooling does not make any sense if the children getting out of school cannot read or write properly.

A broader measure of poverty, the multidimensional poverty index indicates that 65 per cent of Tanzanians are multidimensional poor. The poor are particularly deprived of access to drinking water, sanitation ,electricity and housing.

The basic objective of HDI, often refined to mirror ground realities, is to measure human wellbeing with some proxy variables such as life expectancy, gross national income (GNI) and schooling. The assumption made here is that these variables will reflect a picture of the majority.

For example if a country’s per capita income is growing fast, we expect the majority to benefit from that growth. When we send children to school we expect, by the time they leave school, to be able to read and write. In that sense, the above numbers raise some serious questions.

This is particularly relevant when the country is embarking on a major development drive through its Five Year Development Plan/Mkukuta and Big Results Now (BRN).

Two particular issues that emerge from these numbers and the recent development initiatives warrant special attention.

Firstly, proactive measures need to be taken to make growth pro-poor and inclusive.

Development of small holder agriculture, small and medium enterprises could play a vital role. Removing obstacles for private businesses, big and small, local or foreign, would be a key factor in getting there.

Secondly, the government needs to invest in people heavily which could pay hefty dividends, immediately and in future.

A healthy and educated workforce is a must for Tanzania to achieve its long term development aspirations. This would be essential as the share of the working age population rises and provides a window of opportunity for Tanzania to benefit from a demographic dividend.