OBAMA SPECIAL: Could Trump be a blessing in disguise for Africa?

Dar es Salaam. The mood among Africans today is  quite different from that of eight years ago when former US president George W. Bush was handing over power to Barack Hussein Obama.

Then, Africans were excited by the fact that the first African-American was going to become the President of the most powerful nation on earth.

But as Donald Trump takes oath of office today most Africans don’t know what to expect.

With Obama, many Africans believed relations between the continent and the US were going to be rosy, partly (perhaps mainly) because of Obama’s African heritage. Trump, however, is of a different kind; his ascension to power did not only shock Africa, but the world at large. Many outside the US had hoped and prepared for a Hillary Clinton presidency, rather than the inward-looking Trump.

Some analysts believe that although the US will continue to maintain some relations with Africa the continent will be largely ignored.

Other observers, however, disagree with the view that the US-Africa relations would suffer a major blow under the Trump presidency. Or whether expected aid cuts by the Trump administration would necessarily be a bad thing.

Foreign affairs lecturer from the Mozambique-Tanzania Centre for Foreign Relations (CFR) Amani Gonde says Africa should expect something from Mr Trump; “He is a conservative president in a liberal country.

The US has key partnership interests in Africa, and he is in no position to threaten that institutional framework.”

Mr Gonde argues that even if foreign aid from the US to Africa declines because of the inward looking inclination of Trump that will still be for the Continent’s good.

“In fact, we should set the record straight. It was Obama who started the aid cuts. Evidently Trump might deepen the cuts. President Obama’s Africa policy for the last eight years, has been to make Africa a strong business partner and not an aid recipient,” Mr Gonde says adding. “No one can do that more than Mr Trump who has vowed to fix the US economy at all cost. It is high time we in Africa stand on our own feet. We have to reduce donor dependency by reforming both democratic and economic institutions to boost the welfare of the people. African leaders will have to learn the hard way working with Trump.”

Mr Gonde notes that President-elect Trump has already ‘fired warning shots’ and some African countries, especially those under dictatorships, will have a hard time working with him.

“Egypt has been the biggest beneficiary of US assistance in defence and security in Africa, but he already told the country to look on ways to maintain and expand their military with minimal assistance from the US when he takes over,” he says. 

A political science lecturer from St Augustine University Prof Mwesiga Baregu believes Trump is the right man in the White House to deal with hypocrisy in most of African democracies.

“Obama was more diplomatic in his dealings with Africa. I believe Mrs Clinton could have been more like Obama and that’s why most of African leaders wished for her victory. But Trump is going to call a spade a spade; he has already made remarks that indicate he is not going to have a good time with dictators,” Prof Baregu says.

He adds that he believes Trump is “a blessing in disguise for Africa,” and the continent leaders should put their acts together as “the era of freebees is coming to an end.”

CFR lecturer innocent Shoo on his part says while diplomatically Trump is still a mystery, his business interest is well known. “Trump wants America to do more business and cut foreign aid as much as possible.

Tanzania and Africa should get prepared for the change of guard in the White House and prepare to utilize opportunities such as those provided for by the African Growth and Opportunity Act (Agoa). There is no much to expect from Trump if we aren’t ready to look at the US as a trading partner,” Mr Shoo says.

According to Mr Shoo the only sector under US-Africa partnership that might receive a major boost is security and counter-terrorism.

“The important thing to understand here is that, even without Trump security and the fight against terrorism is global priority of the US government.

However, Trump has vowed to hit hard on radical Islamic insurgencies across the world. In Africa we have Boko Haram, Al-Shabaab, Al Qaeda in the Sahel region and ISIS in Libya, so we should expect him work closer with the continent in quashing that problem,” he said. 

He also noted that many non-governmental organisations (NGOs) in Tanzania and Africa at large who were largely dependent on aid from the US Federal Agencies are going to fill the pinch since, “it is clear that the development aid budget will be hugely slashed, and these NGOs should start thinking of other ways of securing funds for their projects.”

In an opinion piece recently published by the Newsweek entitled ‘Don’t Dismiss the Donald Trump Administration on Africa Policy’, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, Ms Aubrey Hruby argues that African nations should engage with incoming officials or risk losing out on investment and growth opportunities.

She also suggests that the Trump administration will also need to decide on what new programmes to encourage. “Trump administration policy-makers should keep three principles in mind when thinking about how to approach an agenda for Africa. First, millions of Africans, just like millions of Americans, are working hard every day to pull themselves up by their own bootstraps, so policy must ensure that those bootstraps are within reach. Secondly, the new administration should ensure that its policies advance American competitiveness in African markets. And third, US policies should be oriented towards enabling business and investment as tools for mutually beneficial economic development,” she wrote.