Is Tanzania’s stand on Nile water in jeopardy?

Dar es Salaam. The step taken by President John Magufuli and his Egyptian counterpart Abdel Fattah al-Sisi to open up talks on how to use the Nile Basin waters has raised questions on Tanzania’s stand over the age-long matter.

Tanzania has always taken a strong position on the Nile water politics, particularly in protesting the terms of the Colonial era accord signed in 1929 that gave Egypt a lion’s share of the resources.

The 1929 pact between Egypt and Britain gave Egypt veto powers over upstream projects as well as access to most of the Nile waters.

Furthermore, another bilateral pact signed in 1959 between Egypt and Sudan, allowed the two countries to use 55.5 billion and 18.5 billion cubic metres of water respectively every year.

In 2010, Rwanda, Ethiopia and Uganda joined Tanzania in endorsing the treaty on the equitable sharing of the Nile waters. The countries ratified the new agreement, the Nile Basin Cooperative Framework (CFA) also known as the Entebbe Agreement in 2015.

The CFA, to which Egypt is opposed, replaced the 1959 accord. The CFA provides for equal rights for all member states to the use of River Nile waters. Egypt protested the CFA by walking out of the Nile Basin Initiative (NBI) in June 2010.

According to the colonial protocol, Tanzania is entitled to utilising 3.37 per cent of the waters from the Basin even as it contributes 28 per cent of the Lake Victoria waters, which is the main source of the Nile River basin waters.

Other states with their percentage share of use of the resources in brackets are Rwanda (0.65 per cent), Burundi (0.44), DRC (0.69), Ethiopia (11.5), Eritrea (0.81), Kenya (1.62), South Sudan (19.54) and Uganda (7.56).

At the time of ratifying the CFA in Parliament, the then minister for Water and Irrigation, Prof Jumanne Maghembe, told the august House that Tanzania would increase its use of Lake Victoria waters from the current 0.1 per cent to a reasonable amount.

Already the country is planning major water supply and irrigation projects to its central semi-arid regions. There is already a water supply project from the lake to Shinyanga Region. In April, Tanzania signed a loan deal of $268 million (over Sh600 billion) from Exim Bank of India to extend water supply from the lake to Tabora Region. The Tabora project is expected to take 30 months to complete.

Ethiopia is another upstream country that has been vehemently protesting Egypt’s lion’s share claim of the Nile Waters. The country has constructed a $4.8 billion hydropower dam in the Nile that will start generating 750MW sometime later in this year.

Dr Magufuli and al-Sisi held their talks at State House in Dar es Salaam over the matter and several others on Monday, and, according to the Egyption leader, although they could not reach an agreement on the matter but they both agreed on further negotiations.

For his part, Dr Magufuli described the proposals presented by Egypt as positive. “We have heard you Mr President and I think the proposals will benefit both parties. Given the fact that 51 per cent of Lake Victoria, which is the main source of the Nile Water is in Tanzania, we’re entitled to benefit from it.”

The Egyption leader’s next foot of his tour is Kigali, Rwanda.

Although the Egyptian proposals have not been revealed, an Egyptian online publication, Al-Monitor, quoted an unnamed source from the country’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs on Egypt’s take on the review of the CFA.

According to the publication, Egypt wants to amend Clause 14(b) on Water Security, as the country seeks to obtain its historical quota of Nile waters, estimated at 55.5 billion cubic metres (45 million acre-feet) in accordance with the 1959 Convention.

It also wants to amend Clause 12 so as to oblige upstream countries to notify it before starting any project within the Nile Basin. Egypt also wants to amend Clause 46 on voting so that decisions are reached unanimously instead of by a majority to prevent the formation of blocs among the countries opposing Egyptian interests, especially since there is a firm belief that Cairo alone has the lion’s share of resources.

The source said, “During the (April NBI) ministerial meeting, we presented a detailed technical and legal report on the geological and hydraulic state of the river that explains the Egyptian vision of water management according to international rules governing trans boundary rivers, which confirm that the positions of Cairo are backed by international laws and not based on political intransigence against cooperation with Nile riparian countries.”

“We know that persuading the riparian states to modify the Entebbe Agreement is difficult, but they know very well the importance and strength of the impact of the Egyptian presence,” the source added.

The source further said there were several initiatives and attempts to convince Egypt to return to the initiative, especially since the freezing of its membership caused financial losses and suspended numerous aid programmes granted by international partners, mainly the World Bank, to support the Nile Basin Initiative. “This approach motivated the political administration to resolve the dispute with Ethiopia on the Renaissance Dam by signing a declaration of principles for confidence-building.

But the Egyptian position this time is complex. Some within the team that manages the issue do not want to return to the initiative unless a legal breakthrough guarantees Egypt’s water interests in the Nile or the Nile upstream countries agree to discuss the Entebbe Agreement and amend the controversial clauses rejected by Egypt. Otherwise, Egypt’s seven-year freeze of its membership would have been useless.”