Africa has seen enough of political demigods and dictators

Media reports claimed that Zimbabwe’s long ruling president, Robert Mugabe had moved to temper his wife’s political ambitions at the request of his intelligence chief who warned that her political aspirations could lead to political violence.

Grace Mugabe, who has had a difficult relationship with her country’s independence war veterans, a key support group of his husband; President Mugabe. She has told rallies in the past that veterans agitating for President Mugabe to quit must know that they too (veterans) have to go with him, as they were part of the generation that delivered Zimbabwe to where it is today.

This no doubt was an open jibe to one of the country’s Vice presidents, Emmerson Mnangagwa, a man without luck to elected posts but one with all the luck to appointed posts and a rival of Mrs Mugabe in the rat-race to succeed the president if and when he finally bows out. Mnangagwa, himself a veteran of the liberation struggle is said to have the backing of the veterans. President Mugabe is old and increasingly frail; the political vultures around him know for sure that despite the support he has received from party organs to stand for re-election in 2018, it is just a matter of time before the post is vacant, something which has intensified factionalism within ZANU-PF and the battle to succeed him. Of course all those who are said to be eyeing the presidency deny harbouring such ambitions.

They have been around long enough to understand the cloak and dagger politics which sink the unthinkable and raise the unexpected.

Zimbabwe belongs to a group of a few countries, largely in southern and central Africa where power has never left the hands or control of liberation movements. Despite constitutional arrangements on power handovers, more often than not political realities override such legal constraints.

In most of these countries, the putative number two in office has no guarantee of inheriting the reins of power once the all-powerful leader goes, and such individuals are generally weak and subservient to the man in power or come from his own family or close ally to safeguard the interests of the president’s family and allies once the inevitable comes to pass. The aim is simple: the ruler wishes to avoid creating a rival power base at his own expense. In Uganda, President Yoweri Museveni has changed Vice presidents and prime ministers many times, and no one knows for sure what will happen when the presidency is vacant.

It is the same story in Rwanda. And in other countries like Tanzania and Mozambique, the powerful ruling elites have hammered out mechanisms for power to change hands but within the ruling parties, and those who are picked to succeed one president after another are rarely in the putative number two position. They are more often politically unknown by some sections of the population within their own countries.

The unpredictability of what happens next is a dreadful experience as Africa has witnessed many times how destructive that can be. One of the leading causes of political instabilities in Africa today is power vacuum caused by long ruling parties or rulers who did not prepare anyone to take over after them leaving their countries to their fate.

While political term limits to presidents cannot be imposed throughout the continent as a result of varying political conditions and histories of individual countries, a level of predictability is important to ensure that a country does not suffer once the presidency is vacant.

The lack of such political arrangements leads to a country perpetually preoccupied with what the future holds like Zimbabwe where President Mugabe’s allies and enemies alike and casual observers can hardly focus on anything else but the intrigues of what happens next in that country. Time and again news reports declare him “dead”, only for him to “rise” again and again.

The lack of predictability weakens the notion of accountability on the part of those in power. They rule with impunity and plunder their countries resources. At one time, former Zaire strongman, Mobutu Sese Seko replied to a question from a TV journalist on whether he was rich enough to pay his country’s ballooning debts. He said it was theoretically possible but wondered how he could get back his money!

Africa has come a long way. And it still has more ground to cover.

Political predictability through giving life to constitutionalism and good governance is a step in the right direction.

The continent has seen far too many political demigods.