Making sense of a truly astonishing election outcome

Tanzanian voters cast their ballots in the 2020 elections on October 28 – and matters started going viral a few hours after announcing of the results began. For some people, the results appeared to signal the end of multiparty democracy.

Indeed, CCM’s electoral victory was expected by many of us, but not by such overwhelming margins. In the event, we need to seriously reflect on how good governance can be achieved without the presence of the political opposition.

The electorate had grown significantly in 2020, compared to the 2015 elections – growing from around 23 million voters in 2015 to 29 million, an increase of about six million new voters in five years.

All this notwithstanding, though, the voter turnout on polling day last Wednesday was abjectly low – around 15 million voters. That number was further reduced to 14,830,195 valid votes counted in the presidential election.

Observers had predicted Dr John Magufuli’s reelection alright, but what was not envisaged was that he would win by a whopping 84.4 percent of the total vote.

By this margin, Dr Magufuli overshadowed his predecessors’ winning trends. In 2010, Jakaya Kikwete won the presidency by 63.8 percent of the vote, down from 80.3 percent in 2005.

For his part, Benjamin Mkapa won the presidency in 1995 by 61.8 percent of the vote, and by 71.7 percent in 2000. On a somewhat sad note, the political opposition woefully lost ground electoral in this year’s elections. For instance, votes won by the main opposition party Chadema dropped from 6.8 million in 2015 to a measly 1.9 million.

Worse still, the remaining 13 presidential candidates garnered less than one percent of the total valid votes cast. In parliamentary votes, the political opposition did not do well from the outset. Having failed to unite in the style and manner they did under the Ukawa scheme in 2015, none of the parties fielded a parliamentary candidate in 28 constituencies – leaving the ruling CCM to win the constituencies unopposed.

My forecast – for what is it worth – was that CCM would regain its majority in Parliament. But I never envisaged such a huge margin – 256 CCM MPs out of the 264 elected MPs in the Union Parliament.

The remaining eight seats were won by the opposition through the ballot box: ACT-Wazalendo (4 MPs: up from one seat in 2015); Civic United Front (3, down from 32) and Chadema (1, down from 34).

James Mbatia’s NCCR-Mageuzi party joins the many other parties that will stay out of Parliament – at least for the next five years.

With most of the opposition parties failing to garner the requisite five percent of the total vote to qualify for the Women’s Special Seats in Parliament, these will mostly be taken by CCM.

It is a sad reality that parliamentary bills and other issues tabled for debate shall more often than not pass without any serious debate in the new National Assembly, and the situation is not very different in the new local authorities. Indeed, Tanzania has become a virtual one-party state. What democratic retrogression!

I have two proposals. One: the Union President should appoint some of opposition potentates into Parliament using his ‘ten seats presidential slot.

To keep activist voices like Zitto Kabwe, James Mbatia, Freeman Mbowe, Tundu Lissu and Halima Mdee out of the National Assembly is to deny the nation well-deserved opportunities.

Two: appoint the two female presidential candidates MPs as a way to inspire and motivate women: Cecilia Mwanga and Queen Sendiga. Both ran very civilized campaigns, and the issues they raised could be further pursued in Parliament.

Finally, a little wisdom to the political opposition – if any of it still remains! Nowhere – especially including g the African Continent –has bona fide Democracy thrived without a united force from the political opposition.

There indeed is hardly a future without unity!

Immediately counting from now, political opposition parties across the United Republic should convene and seriously reflect on the great political loss they have just endured on the back of the 2020 elections.

This way, they can strategise on the best way forward and well into the future, not only as political parties, but also as individuals, as humans – and as a nation.

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Deus Kibamba is trained in Political Science Studies and International Law and lectures international relations and diplomacy