Opposition parties and the 'inevitable curse'
Since the return of multiparty politics, it would appear that opposition political parties cannot go beyond two general elections before losing the crown of a leading opposition party to another rising opposition party. This “inevitability” of political decline on the part of opposition parties while on course to happen after this year’s general election in October, the political landscape that will emerge is unlikely to give a clear-cut answer unlike in some of the previous general elections.
On the other hand, CCM’s share of votes and the numbers of constituencies they win fluctuate from one election to another, but that has never led them to the exit door.
After the 1995 general election, NCCR Mageuzi was the leading opposition party courtesy of Augustine Mrema, who had defected from the ruling party, CCM. NCCR Mageuzi was a credible opposition party of the time and had assembled a team of highly educated individuals. However, it could not even make it to the next general election in 2000 as a united party as chaos ensued after the general election. A bitter leadership dispute between its then-Secretary General Mabere Marando and Dr Masumbuko Lamwai against their charismatic party chairman left the party in pieces.
By 2000, voters had placed their hopes in another party, the Civic United Front (CUF) with its presidential candidate in Prof Ibrahim Haruna Lipumba, who went on to contest the 2005 general election as well. Despite leadership crises which ended with some leading figures in the party departing, the party somehow sojourned on but it never regained the dubious crown of being a leading opposition party and the political fallout from the 2015 general election is pointing to a serious political decline, the depths of which might have never been witnessed by that party since the first multiparty general election of 1995.
CUF underwent a political revival on the Mainland after posting better than expected results in terms of parliamentary seats it won under the Ukawa umbrella. But following a bruising leadership dispute and the departure of some of its leading figures and architects of its political victories especially in Zanzibar, CUF would need nothing short of a political miracle to pull an electoral shock in this year’s general election. The stars are pointing to a future of political irrelevance, akin to the current political status of NCCR Mageuzi or worse.
In 2010 voters had moved on to another party, Chadema as the embodiment of their dreams of a better future. Chadema was perhaps the best opposition party since the return of multiparty politics. It had so much in terms of talent, both in parliament and within the party. It was a movement. Then 2015 happened! Whoever is picked to run for the presidency on Chadema’s ticket is unlikely to surpass Edward Lowassa’s total number of votes and they are unlikely to replicate or surpass the number of constituencies won in 2015, which was itself not the best showing for the party.
Chadema would appear to have failed to escape the inevitability of the political curse of passing no more than two general elections without losing the opposition’s crown as 2020 appears set to belong to both Chadema and ACT Wazalendo, as the latter is on the rise, in no small part courtesy of a political marriage of convenience with those who set shop from CUF, a party that is set to lose more if the rumors doing the rounds-that many of its current MPs representing constituencies in Zanzibar are set to decamp to ACT Wazalendo when parliament’s term expires later this year-turn out to be more than just rumors.
A member of the House of Representatives, one Hamza Hassan Juma plans to table a private motion to bar those who have switched political parties to contest in elections before completing two years in their new political tents. Should this succeed, it will throw a spanner in the works of ACT Wazalendo and their new allies, halting its rise and leaving the country without a single dominant opposition political party and might abruptly bring down the political curtain of some leading opposition figures in the Isles.
ACT Wazalendo has indicated they will go to court to challenge any such law but that is not the point. Many things could happen between now and then but should such motion become law, it would be insane to view it as efforts of a single politician. Our politicians have a knack for the wrong things.
Either way, opposition political parties are unlikely to cheat this “inevitability curse” of two general elections once the dust for 2020 finally settles. For any political miracle to happen, opposition parties need to find ways to crack CCM’s hold of rural votes.
