Tshisekedi  expected to win DRC polls as ties with neighbours weaken

Congolese voters are now waiting for the spinning coin after the National Independent Electoral Commission (Ceni) started to count ballots to determine who of the 26 candidates won the presidency.

Exit projections have signalled a victory for President Felix Tshisekedi. Eight candidates pulled out of the race to either back him or opposition heavyweight Moise Katumbi. Whatever happens in the vote count, the next DRC president, expected to be announced on January 10, 2024, by the Constitutional Court, will face an immediate challenge to righting many wrongs and rebuilding the economy and bridges with Congo’s neighbours.

The new president will still face the task of building the economy and removing DRC from the list of the top five poorest nations in the world. 
The cost of living has increased and the country relies heavily on imports of basic foodstuff. The depreciation of the Congolese franc has pushed up inflation, which surged to 23 percent year-on-year in July 2023, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

Mr Tshisekedi negotiated a $1.5 billion programme with the IMF in July 2021, the first since the IMF broke ties with Kinshasa in 2012 under President Tshisekedi’s predecessor Joseph Kabila, Reuters reported in November.
More than 26 million people require humanitarian assistance, in part because of rampant insecurity, data from the United Nations’ International Organisation for Migration show.

In 2022, nearly 62 percent of Congolese, around 60 million people, lived on less than $2.15 a day. About one out of six people living in extreme poverty in sub-Saharan Africa lives in DRC.
The mining sector remains the driver of growth although mining output growth is projected to slow to 11.7 percent in 2023, from 22.6 percent in 2022, according to the World Bank.

The current account deficit should remain at 4.7 percent of GDP in 2023, in response to higher import prices. Inflows from external financing are expected to lead to the accumulation of international reserves, estimated to reach 10 weeks of imports in 2023, according to the World Bank.

EAC relations
The DRC is sub-Saharan Africa’s largest country by land size. Of its nine neighbours, it shares borders with five East African Community (EAC) members. In the run-up to the elections, relations with those neighbours seemed stuck in the mud.

Only Burundi seemed to enjoy unfettered access to Kinshasa.
Rwanda remained public enemy number one and Uganda-DRC relations were still marred by old suspicions.
Kenya, which had been seen as a neutral “friend” broke that trust after hosting a group of rebels who gathered in Nairobi and declared intent to kick out the government in Kinshasa. Nairobi has since denounced the group but argued it could not gag free speech and hence could not arrest the group led by former Ceni president Corneille Nangaa, now sanctioned and in exile.

Kinshasa has since admitted its expectations in the EAC haven’t been met, but officials said they will stay on.
“When we joined the EAC, it was to connect our country with the region. The regional bloc was committed to peacebuilding but unfortunately, we have little progress,” government spokesman and Information and Communication Minister Patrick Muyaya said in Kinshasa on November 2.
Additional reporting by Aggrey Mutambo