What the regions' diverse growth rate mean

Dar es Salaam. Dar es Salaam may be Tanzania’s economic hub, but its growth rate is among the lowest in the country as other regions strive to realise their potential, latest figures show.

With GDP of Sh27.487 trillion last year, Dar es Salaam accounted for 17 percent of Tanzania’s Sh161.5 trillion economy.

However, Dar es Salaam’s economy has grown by only 69 percent in the past seven years, marginally below the national average of 71 percent.

This makes Dar es Salaam among the ten regions with the lowest economic growth rates, according to National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) data.

With the government expected to reveal results of the 2022 Population and Housing Census soon, analysts are expected be keenly watching economic development in Njombe, Katavi, Coast, Mwanza, Lindi, Dodoma, Mtwara, Singida, Manyara, Songwe and Mbeya.

The ten regions’ growth rates for seven years from 2015 are 107 percent (Njombe), 92 percent (Katavi), 90 percent (Coast), 88 percent (Mwanza), 84 percent (Lindi), 82 percent (Dodoma), 79 percent (Mtwara), 78 percent (Singida), 73 percent (Manyara), 71 percent (Songwe) and 71 percent (Mbeya).

Focus should also be on Mwanza and Mbeya, which, according to their contributions to national GDP, are second and third behind Dar es Salaam.

According to NBS figures, the ten regions with growth rates below the seven-year national average of 71 percent are Iringa (42 percent), Rukwa (60), Geita (62), Kigoma (65), Ruvuma (66), Tabora (66), Morogoro (67), Kilimanjaro (68), and Dar es Salaam and Shinyanga (69).

But analysts are of the view that the phenomenon is normal and not an indication that some regions are less productive than others.

“Dar es Salaam hosts at least 70 to 80 percent of the country’s industrial base, and what is happening with regard to the data you’ve mentioned indicates the diversification of the economy as people seek opportunities elsewhere,” said Repoa executive director Donald Mmari.

He added: “If you are to compare economic growth rates of European countries with those in East Africa, the latter grows faster than the former, but that doesn’t mean East African countries are richer than their EU counterparts.”

According to the economist, businesses will always search for market opportunities.

“When the government decided to move to Dodoma, there was high demand for buildings, so the real estate industry and other sectors flourished due to this.

“If you go around the country, you will find peri-urban centres that which are vibrant, with lots of economic activities. If you are to rate them, you will see that they are growing fast, but you can’t compare their growth rates with those of large towns,” Dr Mmari said

But Prof Haji Semboja of the State University of Zanzibar sees growth being complimented by input resources that the said regions acquire, including adequate land, water, people and natural resources.

“Dar es Salaam is highly populated. People are coming in for trade, so there is no additional value that might take place. Of course, Dar es Salaam will remain a statistics hub as most of the transactions are done in the city, but production facilities may not necessarily be based in Dar es Salaam,” he said.

Prof Semboja, who has also worked as a researcher at the Economic Research Bureau of the University of Dar es Salaam, added that the country’s capital hub is a service-oriented region.

“Geographically speaking, Mbeya is like a country within a country if you are to compare it with nations such as Rwanda and even Zanzibar.”

Furthermore, he said that although the transfer of regional commissioners would sound politically good, but economically they halt developmental consistency as far as utilising the available resources for economic growth is concerned.

“Each RC has his or her own ambitions, and they do differ from one RC to another. Therefore, transferring them would in one way or the other have adverse effects on the local economy. In fact, RCs act as governors in their respective areas...they have an important role to play as far as economic growth is concerned,” Prof Semboja said.

According to him, when a region has people as well as other resources such as land, forest, water and minerals, coupled with a visionary administration, then there is every reason for accelerated economic growth.