Assisted democracy bane or boon?
Baring a radical decision by the Tanzanian High Court, we can safely assume that Mbeya Town Member of Parliament Tulia Arkson shall be the new Speaker of the National Assembly of the United Republic of Tanzania.
Former Member of Parliament James Mbatia has moved to court to try and stem the inevitable-the ceremonial voting in parliament to choose the Speaker with the ruling Party Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) settling on the hitherto Deputy Speaker, to take the mantle from the former Speaker Job Yustino Ndugai.
A day is, indeed, a very long time in politics. Last Year January 2021, Hon Ndugai the Member of Parliament for Kongwa was very much in the driving seat as Speaker and in Ikulu, Chamwino, Dr John Pombe Magufuli was speaking with the confidence of a man who knew there would be no different tomorrow.
Amongst the many quotes were the famous, “deal with them in parliament and I will deal with them out here,”.
One year later, the wind of change has brought with it changes. Dr John Pombe Magufuli passed away in March last year paving way for the entry of President Samia Suluhu Hassan to Ikulu. With that change, the ever concealed knives went into overdrive, perpetrators in CCM A looking to do a one-up on their CCM B and CCM C colleagues.
The latest decision, by the ruling party to select Mbeya Town MP Tulia Arkson to be candidate for the position of Speaker , which Mr. Ndugai unwillingly and sensationally quite a few weeks ago, and the expected subsequent endorsement by overwhelming CCM majority in Parliament comes to mind, that, democracy needs and must be guided.
The vexed question however is in this case was the guided democracy in the best interest of the nation or that of a small cabal of CCM power brokers?
This is not, in any way, to say Ms. Arkson does not have what it takes. No, not at all. Tulia Arkson, to be sure is qualified to be speaker given that the constitution allows anyone of sound mind, adult to be a speaker of the national assembly. She, in addition is a lawyer.
In a Tanzania in which the system is wired to heavily favour the party of Julius Nyerere, God Rest His Soul in peace, it is going to take a lot more than just a mere will of the people to bring change to the way governance makes for public accountability.
Look around the world including the so-called mature democracies of the world, democracy needs, ought to be guided. The ruling parties in Tanzania is doing exactly what those mature democracies have done and continue to do, guided democracy.
Left on its own democracy, can often lead to unimaginable chaos.
The election of one Donald Trump is one such case where democracy, instead of offering a solution, rather than going from good to better ended up giving America and the world, the chaos that was Donald Trump.
The ruling CCM is a party that is a master class of managed democracy. The master thesis of students of political science of the future, shall be whether CCM was managing democracy with the Tanzanian population in general in mind, or it was doing so, with its own survival in government beyond 2025 being the motivating factor.
In the words of CCM Chair President Samia Suluhu Hassan, her recent cabinet shuffle of the pack was brought about because certain stalwarts were getting the “2025 fever syndrome disease.”
That the CCM leader let the cat out of the bag when dropping Prof Palamagamba Kabudi and Isimani member of Parliament William Vangimembe Lukuvi from cabinet and then behind the scene shenanigans left Ndugai no choice but to resign, show signs of CCM managing democracy for its own benefit.
The unsaid remains, President Samia Suluhu Hassan has no clout inside CCM and those, who for some reason or other, believe they are ahead of her in the queue are doing everything to bag the nomination to become the CCM candidate come 2025.
The knives are out, the daggers are drawn, the ruling party is at wars within itself. Who shall have the last laugh in this stage-managed democracy?
