Samia a breath of fresh air, but how far can she go?

President Samia Suluhu Hassan’s first 100 days in office have sent Tanzania into political ecstasy. To many people the feeling has been like the windows have been kicked open to bring in light and fresh air, and Tanzania started to feel like Tanzania again. As a result, the not-so-outspoken leader has become wildly popular, and it is all thanks to the regressive politics of the late President John Pombe Joseph Magufuli.

It has been like kumsukuma mlevi: the leadership bar had been set so low that any conceivable path had to take people upwards. And no one can blame President Hassan for rushing to pick those low-hanging fruits.

As a new African president, one does not expect to find government coffers full, but you can be as sure as hell to find the nation seriously messed up. What can be said at this point is that President Hassan has handled herself remarkably well. She is not only likable but also highly sensible. Set against a background where politicians were falling over themselves to be as idiotic as they possibly could, she is a revelation.

Leaders can be analysed through many different lenses. One may consider their influence and power; their styles and personalities; their philosophies and ethics, or even their visions and priorities. For all of that, readers may have to wait for complete biographies to be written. However, apart from undoing previous misdeeds, what sort of a leader is President Hassan shaping up to be? Specifically, how transformative can she be? Moreover, how does she measure up against Tanzania’s biggest leadership challenges, namely producing faster economic growth and restructuring Tanzania’s broken political system?

With respect to the economy, the past five years have been a horror show in economic management. All economic wisdoms were cast aside in favour of dead-end economics. The adages do not eat the goose that lays the golden eggs, do not bite the hand that feeds you, or only fools doubt proof, were all brushed off. So, after economic data had been massaged to the point that the reality could no longer be hidden, Tanzania would have reached a dead end.

However, President Hassan has taken steps which are very promising economic-wise. On the one hand, she has painted a noticeably clear vision – that she wants to open up the economy to foreign investments and build a thriving private sector. On the other hand, her rhetoric has been matched with solid action. For example, negotiations for several strategic projects have been restarted, including the Bagamoyo Special Economic Zone (SEZ), Liganga Iron Ore and Mchuchuma Coal Mining. Moreover, all bank accounts that had been frozen by TRA have been reopened. Furthermore, she has made considerable efforts to reposition Tanzania well internationally – by joining AfCFTA, visiting Kenya and Uganda, and taking sensible Covid-19 control measures.

And the response has been dramatic. A CGTN report shows that the government has recorded 92 large investment projects with a value of $3.5 billion in the period between March and June 2021, compared to 62 projects with a value of $331 million in the same period in 2020. That is a whopping 725 percent increase! What this shows is that President Hassan’s confidence-building approach works. And, based on this evidence, President Hassan demonstrates that she understands the economics of growth, and if she will choose to be ambitious, then she is most likely capable of significantly propelling Tanzania’s economy forward.

It is on the management of politics that President Hassan is likely to stumble. When you talk to some of CCM’s insiders, one of the main takeaways is this – President Hassan is a CCM’s cadre who has grown through the party ranks to reach where she is. This means she has been trained to think and live for CCM. This raises the question whether President Hassan will transcend CCM, and choose to do what is good for Tanzania.

For example, while many of her most senior appointments tended to observe the logic of meritocracy, a good number of her appointments of district commissioners departed from that logic. That’s why you see popularity becoming more of a factor. While that may be designed to not only consolidate her power but also ensure implementation of CCM’s agenda, one wonders whether that serves the nation’s interests. When people who have shown limited inclination or interest in government systems or community transformation become political masters of those who have spent decades in the bureaucratic ranks, that is a system full of internal contradictions. A transformative leader will seek to correct those contradictions, not only by adhering to strict meritocracy, but also by reviewing the system itself, ultimately asking whether the nation needs RCs and DCs at all.

What the Magufuli era has revealed is that what is good for CCM is not necessarily good for Tanzania. So, it will be interesting to observe the direction that President Hassan will take. Will she choose to remain a CCM chairperson in the President’s office, or a Tanzanian President who is also CCM chairperson?