STRATAGEM: Tanzanian election opinion polls a political Trojan horse

For lack of the requisite wherewithal with which to ‘visit’ my usual watering hole somewhere in Kinondoni Municipality, I instead found myself re-reading through print media reports of a handful or so ‘Opinion polls’ published recently in many local newspapers!

The ‘Opinion polls’ – all claiming to have something to do with the imminent general election slated for October 25 this year – were reportedly conducted (in good faith perhaps) by assorted pollsters, both local- and foreign-based, during August and September this year. Although the elections ‘attracted’ presidential candidates from eight fully-registered political parties, the pollsters nonetheless tended to mainly gravitate towards two of the aspirants.

These are John Joseph Pombe Magufuli from the veteran ruling Party of the Revolution – which ‘Revolution,’ pray? – (Chama cha Mapinduzi: CcM); and Edward Ngoyayi Lowassa, running on the ticket of the most powerful opposition political Party for Democracy & Development (Chama cha Demokrasia na Maendeleo: ChaDeMa). The ‘findings’ of the ‘Opinion polls’ were ‘discordant’ (in a manner of speaking), with some favouring the CcM candidate, Magufuli, while others favoured the Opposition candidate on the ChadeMa ticket, Lowassa.

For instance, the IPSOS/Synovate Poll ‘gave Magufuli a 62-per cent lead against Lowassa’s 31 per cent. The Twaweza poll also had Magufuli leading (66 per cent) versus Lowassa’s 25 per cent. [Nipashe, September 25 and 26, 2015].

Perhaps most outrageous was the ‘self-opinionated poll’ of Candidate Magufuli who – speaking at a public rally in Nyarugusu Village, Geita Region – credited himself with a whopping 95 per cent majority vote! [Nipashe, et al: September  26, 2015]. However, other ‘Opinion polls’ had Lowassa leading Magufuli. The ‘Tanzania Development Initiatives Programme (TaDIP: September 4-23 ‘poll’) had Lowassa ‘winning’ by 54.4 per cent, against Magufuli’s 40 per cent!

A poll by the Canadian Nanos Research Institute, funded by the Canadian International Development Agency, showed Lowassa winning’ by 64 per cent, against Magufuli’s 31 per cemt! [ABC Newa, quoting Nanos’ Report ‘Tanzania Opinion Poll’, page 23].

Three ‘Opinion polls’ conducted under the Ukakwa Coalition wing by local and foreign pollsters showed Lowassa ‘winning’ by 74, 76 and 79 per cent – averaging out at 76.3 per cent! [Nipashe: September 25, 2015]. Why, pray, would ‘Opinion polls’ findings be so divergent when, ideally, the subject-matter’s the same; the persons polled are from the same community – and the pollsters apply universally-accepted norms and scientific approaches? I don’t know. Do you?

I’ve ventured elsewhere that such ‘Opinion polls’ are akin to modern-day wooden Trojan horses employed to infiltrate one’s favourite candidate past the State House walls/gate and into power!

Remember the Trojan War in Greek Mythology caused by (Mister) Paris ‘stealing’ exquisitely beautiful Helen (of Troy) from her husband Menelaus, King of Sparta? You don’t? Read Homer’s ‘ILIAD’ and other Greek literature!

The ‘Trojan horse’ was a large, hollow wooden ‘horse’ full of Greek soldiers that was unwittingly ‘allowed’ into Troy during the ten-year war between the Greeks and Trojans – renowned for their pluck, energy and perseverance!

However, that wooden horse became their undoing – much like something or someone that undermines, subverts, from within… The war ended with the destruction of Troy, thanks to the Trojan horse stratagem. So, where’ll ‘our Opinion polls’ – virtually a modern-day political (rather than military) Trojan horse – eventually land us, pray? Cheers!