The troubles of being number two
The wider East African region continues to be transfixed on the ongoing high-stakes political drama unfolding out of Nairobi. It has been so for the last few years now, as the race to succeed President Uhuru Kenyatta continues to take twists and turns even Hollywood script writers with all their political films and television series would struggle to conjure up.
Kenya’s deputy president William Ruto has constantly been in the news as his political fallout with his erstwhile ally in President Kenyatta continues to hit different heights as Kenyatta’s exit draws near. Commentators and Ruto allies blame Raila Odinga, one of the leading opposition leaders in Kenya for their troubles after his ‘handshake’ with President Kenyatta. It kicked-off a huge political storm that continues to cause destruction within the ruling class of Kenya’s notoriously fragile political alliances.
Ruto’s troubles are not new to many in his position. It is even more complicated when the number two sees themselves or is considered to be equal to number one. It could even be a question of merely being thought to harbor political ambitions beyond one’s station that could lead to a terrible ending for the number two or a start of a long game of cloak and daggers which claims many political casualties.
The political setting could be a reason for the troubles of the number two. Ruto and his political allies have declared a campaign based on what their critics and political opponents claim is pitting Kenyans along classes with their ‘hustlers versus dynasties’ slogan. Deep down, it is about whether the number two is trustworthy enough to guarantee the economic interests of the ruling class and the rich.
As things progress in Kenya, it appears that the number one and his political allies have no such faith in his number two.
It has been a tortuous and tumultuous journey for the number two ever since. The juggernaut continues to roll and those in charge seem not to have found a way to stop it.
Niccolò Machiavelli observed that the passions which drove men in the past are the same passions driving men today. Ruto troubles have the same dynamics other number twos continue to face, especially in political settings where constitutional arrangements with regard to the line of succession come second to political calculations. One can be a number two as far as the constitution is concerned but far away from inheriting the land as far as political dynamics are concerned.
Consider the political history of some of the countries on the continent regarding political succession where few constitutional number twos made it to the top, even then they had a helping hand of God or some shrewd political maneuvers.
Uganda’s long time ruler, Yoweri Museveni throughout his time in office has consistently never appointed anyone to the position of number two who could rival his own power base.
All his number twos, constitutionally or politically were harshly reminded of their proper places in the pecking order every time they showed to have minds of their own and challenged the big man. Even in the event of a post-Museveni Uganda, only fools would believe that the constitutional number two would be the real power on the throne.
It is the same story in Rwanda where there is no putative number two to speak of. On a flip side given the recent country’s history this could be a good thing, that the political animals are kept at bay and forced to focus on other matters in the meantime.
Burundi has the same story. South Sudan is murkier and more complex with new rebellions and rebels outfits springing up every other day as army generals fight for a seat at the table.
In countries with long ruling political parties like Tanzania or Zimbabwe, the succession race is chaotic despite the choreographed political dances showing otherwise.
The winners of the race within the ruling party almost always are never about the country per se. The actors calling the shots are multiple and they make it extremely difficult for anyone to envy political life outside the huge political tents erected for all sorts of characters.
However, there are times when the gods themselves with their wicked sense of humuor come to play, completely altering the political landscape.
There is still an eternity from now to when President Kenyatta finally exits. The current emerging political alliances point to continued severe turbulence for Ruto. It is no easy being number two, even more so when the rules of the game, despite the veneer of modernity and civilization, are as archaic as time. One is agonizingly close yet too far away.
