People gather on top of debris of buildings at the scene of an explosion near the Presidential Palace, also known as Villa Somalia, in the Hamar Jajab district of Mogadishu, Somalia March 18, 2025.
Kenya’s national security hawks are likely losing sleep. The months ahead threaten crises at its northern borders—familiar, yet now converging in a perfect storm.
A troubling piece appeared in Ethiopia’s Addis Standard on March 21: From Insurgency to Power Grab: Al-Shabaab’s Deadly Advance on Mogadishu Signals Somalia’s Descent into Disaster. Written by Horn of Africa analyst Adam Daud Ahmed, it painted an unsettling picture of al-Shabaab’s growing strength. No longer just an insurgency launching sporadic attacks, al-Shabaab is morphing into a “government-in-waiting” with a shot at capturing Mogadishu. It now operates within 30 kilometres of the capital—closer than in recent years.
