Prime
Was Israel Involved in Iranian president’s death?
Late Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi
What you need to know:
- At the heart of this speculation is the long-standing animosity between Iran and Israel, two regional powers locked in a bitter rivalry. Israel, known for its formidable intelligence capabilities and willingness to take bold actions to protect its interests, is often viewed with suspicion around the world.
In the complex geopolitical landscape of the Middle East, intrigue often shadows tragedy, and the recent helicopter accident involving Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi is no exception. The crash, which claimed the lives of Raisi’s chief of staff and several other officials too, occurred under mysterious circumstances, sparking widespread speculation about potential foul play.
At the heart of this speculation is the long-standing animosity between Iran and Israel, two regional powers locked in a bitter rivalry. Israel, known for its formidable intelligence capabilities and willingness to take bold actions to protect its interests, is often viewed with suspicion around the world. In the case of Raisi’s helicopter accident, many people have questioned whether Israel’s Mossad had a hand in orchestrating the incident.
President Ebrahim Raisi was a formidable adversary for Israel due to his hardline stance and support for Iran’s nuclear ambitions. His tenure was marked by vocal hostility towards Israel and backing for anti-Israel groups like Hezbollah and Hamas. Raisi’s involvement in past judicial executions also showcased his uncompromising nature. His leadership heightened regional tensions and directly threatened Israel’s security. Removing Raisi would strategically benefit Israel by diminishing an immediate threat and potentially weakening Iran’s aggressive posture.
To understand why Israel is suspected, one must delve into history, particularly the clandestine cyber warfare campaign that targeted Iran’s nuclear program. The Stuxnet virus, discovered in 2010, was a sophisticated cyber weapon designed to sabotage Iran’s uranium enrichment facilities. It marked a new era in warfare, showcasing the power of cyber-attacks to disrupt critical infrastructure.
What made Stuxnet particularly remarkable was its precision and stealth. Developed with the specific goal of targeting Iran’s nuclear facilities, the virus infiltrated computer systems, causing malfunctions in centrifuges used for uranium enrichment. Stuxnet was ingenious in many ways – but more so in its ability to seek its target, remain undetected, and inflict significant damage without leaving any trace of its origins.
Israel, renowned for its expertise in cybersecurity and its determination to thwart Iran’s nuclear ambitions, emerged as a prime suspect in the creation of Stuxnet. The virus’s complexity and sophistication suggested the involvement of a state actor with advanced technological capabilities. It is estimated that it took about 30 experts almost six months to develop a software of such complexity.
When examining the accident involving President Raisi, the parallels to the Stuxnet operation emerge. Israel, facing an Iranian regime openly hostile to its interests would have both the motive, the capability, and the opportunity to target Raisi.
Firstly, the timing of the accident, occurring amidst escalating tensions between Israel and Iran, raises suspicions. Raisi’s presidency marked a shift in Iranian leadership towards a more hardline stance, leading to the Iranians’ decision to send over 300 missiles to Israel. By removing Raisi, Israel sends a clear message that when its security is concerned, forgiving and forgetting are not part of its ethos.
Secondly, Israel also has the capability for such a daring attack. Raisi was on board an outdated American Bell 212 helicopter, which Israel must know well. And, if modifications were made for presidential transport, that would have made the helicopter even more susceptible to penetration. There were many potential ways for the system to be exploited, the foggy weather on the day of the accident only provided cover for the attack, leaving the two other helicopters unaffected.
Thirdly, Israel’s history of successfully infiltrating Iran, as seen in the targeted killings of five nuclear scientists, including the high-profile assassination of Mohsen Fakhrizadeh in 2020, is the stuff of legend. Israel clearly had the opportunity to orchestrate such an operation, especially considering Raisi was travelling from Israel-friendly Azerbaijan, providing valuable insights into his movements and details.
Israel’s response to news of Raisi’s death is telling. While it is marked by a strategic combination of denial and silence, reflecting its long-standing policy of ambiguity regarding covert operations, the prevailing stance was one of deliberate reticence. Publicly attributing the attack to Israel would risk provoking a full-scale conflict with Iran—a scenario contrary to the wishes of everyone that matters in the world. By silence, Israel can effectively maintain a position of plausible deniability while subtly signalling its capability to defend its interests if provoked.
While the notion of Israeli involvement in Raisi’s accident may seem plausible, definitive answers may remain elusive for a while. On one side, it is not in Israel’s interests to reveal its involvement and it is not in the interests of Iran to lay bare its strategic failures that led to the death of their Commander in Chief. However, the suspicion about Israel’s role underscores the animosity that characterises the relationship between Israel and Iran and defines the geopolitics of the Middle East.
In a region where every incident carries the potential for escalation, caution and vigilance are paramount. Whether or not Israel had a hand in the helicopter accident involving President Raisi, the episode serves as a sobering reminder of the dangers inherent in the tangled web of regional rivalries and conflicts. Only by navigating these shadows with care and diligence can the region hope to find a path towards peace and stability.
