Why once-thriving Botswana is in tears

The coalition rode in with big promises of jobs, reform, and new energy. But as months passed, the high hopes were replaced by frustration. Prices have risen, jobs are still scarce,  and as Bloomberg reported,

“..foreign reserves are being drained, the government is taking on debt…Its status as one of the richest nations per capita on the African mainland is under threat, as is the continent’s best credit rating”.

Part of the problem lies in the economy. For decades, Botswana’s wealth came mainly from diamond revenues, which once covered as much as 80 per cent of export earnings.

With natural resource money better governed than almost any other mineral-rich African country, it brought schools, roads, hospitals, and stability. But the world has changed.

Demand for diamonds is crashing as more buyers turn to factory-made stones, which are cheaper. In 2024, diamond revenue plummeted nearly 50 per cent, from $3.19 billion to $1.53 billion in the first three quarters.

Botswana did not act quickly enough to diversify its economy while diamonds were strong. Now,  it finds itself caught between the weight of its past success and the difficulty of creating new sources of growth.

The beef industry, once Botswana’s other global export, also stumbled badly. For decades, Botswana was one of Africa’s few countries to enjoy preferential access to the European Union beef market, exporting up to 17,000 tonnes annually and earning over $120 million.

However, Botswana’s beef revenues fell below $50 million by the early 2020s. Repeated foot-and-mouth outbreaks, stricter EU health regulations, droughts, and weakened veterinary systems all played a role in that sharp decline, which hurt rural livelihoods and worsened unemployment.

The country has one of the highest HIV prevalence rates in the world, affecting about 20 per cent of adults, straining the health system and reducing productivity. Demographics, too, have thrown a spanner in the works.

Fertility rates have fallen steadily, from more than six children per woman in the 1980s to just 2.8 today – one of the most rapid in Africa – raising concerns about future ageing.

Women, who make up 51.3 per cent of the population, bear the heaviest burdens. Female unemployment stands at 26 per cent, compared with 20 per cent for men. Women now outnumber men in universities but remain locked out of senior jobs and politics. The gender gap persists in wages, and land ownership.

President Boko is also struggling to manage a public-health crisis triggered by the Central Medical Stores—the state body responsible for drug supply—embroiled in scandal. Inflated invoices, price hikes of basic medicines by five to ten times, and mysterious stockouts.

In August, Boko declared a national health emergency. Military trucks now ferry medicines, a once-unimaginable action in a country where the army had always stayed out of sight.

The comparisons and contrasts with Kenya are striking. Like Botswana, Kenya once had a thriving beef industry, only for it to collapse. The two countries also share a rare record in Africa: neither has ever fallen under a military dictatorship.

On the other hand, governance in Botswana has remained highly centralised, limiting local governments’ ability to respond nimbly to crises. By contrast, countries like Kenya have used devolved systems – despite the corruption and inefficiencies of many of them – to tap regional strengths and resourcefulness. 

Yet Kenya collapsed economically in peacetime in the 1980s and early 1990s, before making a dramatic recovery under President Mwai Kibaki from 2003.

The revival was powered by innovations such as Safaricom’s world-leading mobile money, M-Pesa, a massive infrastructure build-out, diversification, reform of financial markets, a new constitution, and the revival of the East African Community and more open regional markets.

For decades, others learned from Botswana’s story of good governance and steady growth. Now, as its old model falters, it may be time for Botswana to learn lessons from the renewal of countries like Kenya.

Diversification beyond commodities—into manufacturing, technology, and services—offers buffers that diamond-heavy Botswana did not develop in time.

Botswana’s faltering now serves as a reminder that diamonds are forever—but the prosperity built on them is not. But for nearly 60 years, Botswana provided Africa with a good story, particularly in eras when such success was rare. For that, we say “thank you”.

The author is a journalist, writer and curator of the Wall of Great Africans.  X@cobbo3