What does the future hold for the opposition?

After CCM had picked John Magufuli as their presidential candidate back in 2015, then president and CCM chairman, Jakaya Kikwete said, with a laughter, that his successor will “baptise with fire”, few could have tied that statement with what was in store for opposition parties in the country.

As high profile individuals and elected office holders continue to decamp from the opposition to CCM citing nothing new as reasons behind their defections, and the opposition offering the same punch, that the defectors are “sell-outs”, who should leave the those determined to build a strong, viable and healthy opposition to carry on with their journey.

Party switching

As common as party-switching has become in this country, there are still those who are shocked when certain individuals decamp from one party to another. They feel betrayed that the politicians they trusted could let them down that much.

That despite politicians being the most untrustworthy of individuals, some still trust them. They see their desires, visions for the future, their hopes, expressed by these politicians and their challenges addressed. What most people forget is that what they consider to be the principles held by a politician are valid for as long they are aligned to the politician’s interests.

While it is a fact that politicians switching their political parties is nothing new and the current wave being compared by some to that of 2015 when there were countless reports of members of political parties constantly switching to different parties, this time around the wave of shifting political loyalties is largely one-sided.

Missed opportunity

2015 was a missed opportunity for the opposition in this country in so many ways. They had a huge political momentum on their side, but the political leadership was clueless how to move forward from there. They constantly shifted the political goal-posts as CCM was learning some of the lessons which led to some of its members seeking political future on the other side of the political divide.

It is also important to point out that some of those decamping are actually returning to where they belonged in the first place as far as politics is concerned. The opposition have failed to find a proper response apart from dubious statements of defiance that those who are leaving are “strengthening” the opposition. The value of “returnees” and those decamping to CCM for the first time is debatable to the long term viability of the long ruling party.

Glaring mistakes

For most of the time since the return of multipartism, opposition parties have largely thrived on the many glaring mistakes made by CCM and its-led governments. All this time they have rarely had time to assess their strengths and weaknesses. As the political playing field continues to be massively uneven, it would help the opposition more if they take time to make serious self-reflections.

Of the paramount importance is to allow dissenting voices from within to be heard. Since 2015, the opposition have lost some of the best minds because of all sorts of reasons.

CCM’s Secretary General Dr Bashiru Ally referred to the current political reality as a “refreshing wind” blowing after the “terrible winds” of 2015, that now things are returning to normal, to how they should be. ACT Wazalendo’s Zitto Kabwe, says opposition politicians decamping to CCM is a psychological warfare. I have said as much on this space previously, and currently, CCM is winning by wide margins this psychological warfare. With persistent rumors of more defections to come, and some denials offered with little conviction, the opposition are clueless as to how to prevent what seems like an impending doom for them come 2020.

One-party parliament

As the latest round of defections from the same opposition party were making headlines, a friend wondered whether come 2020 we are headed for a near-one party parliament. With the many crises within opposition parties, and the continued onslaught from CCM, there is nothing to suggest any different outcome.

The opposition are dealing with a CCM national chairman unlike any other before who has galvanized a party that had increasingly become unsure of itself pre-2015. He is fundamentally altering the rules of the political games in this country in the long term, and for the short term the future of the opposition looks bleak.