OPINION: Arduous task of Opposition in Africa

It is an understatement to say that it is not an easy task being an opposition politician in Africa. You graduate through beatings, tear gas, some jail time, countless legal headaches, exile, and harassment to those close to you and threats to one’s life. The list is long. The personal cost can be huge. Those in power, have come to see themselves as entitled to rule their countries and challenges to their dominance is not taken well.

By necessity, opposition politicians have been the most vocal about issues regarding rights even though their political outfits do not match their grand statements when condemning the government for curtailing their freedom of speech or association are not backed by their own conduct in their political outfits.

The recent interviews Tundu Lissu conducted with BBC journalists were very much focused on rights, and he was careful not to fall into a “trap” of admitting any achievement under the current president.

Clearly, he knew his audience was both domestic and international. In one of his interviews, responding to a question that opposition politicians oppose everything and do not see anything good from President John Magufuli, he responded by saying that the president has done “many good things” but managed to stay on his theme by taking a swipe at the president who“has taught them the value of freedom than any other president since independence.”In another interview, which was widely shared online, he was asked whether he supported same sex relationships to which he was emphatic that it was no government’s place to peep into people’s bedrooms, and that he was prepared to do away with all the laws which he argued contradicted the country’s constitution. Undoubtedly, there were gasps and jaws dropped to his supporters and opponents unlike.

That, was a huge step for a politician in this part of the world and, should he stand by his comments, he knows it is a very unpopular place to be.

In both interviews, the question of running for the presidency in 2020, which was just a rumor doing the rounds online and among some sections of his own party some months ago, made it into the mainstream. As things stand now, he has positioned himself at the top of whatever queue might be there for presidential aspirants from the opposition.

In the Greater East African region, the opposition has managed to topple a long ruling party, a party of independence in Kenya. That political victory was a product of many reasons which are somewhat unique to Kenya compared to the rest of the countries in this region. In DRC where another opposition candidate was declared the winner of a presidential election, that outcome too, which is bitterly contested, is rumoured to be a product of a deal between the outgoing president and the incoming president.That effectively sidestepped bitter political rivals of the outgoing president.

In the rest of the countries, while much has changed, it has stayed the same too.

Those who were in power as the last century was coming to a close are still in power today in most of these countries. Even those who came to power in this century have shown that once you get into office, getting out is never easy even if it at the risk of leading the country into a civil war.

In Uganda, the man in charge there has seen off countless of challengers. He was in power long before South Sudan became a country. When the DRC was still under Mobutu Sese Seko’s rule. Long before Omar Bashir had taken power in Sudan.

Burundi, where the current leader came to power from a guerilla movement, like many of those in power today (or their parties) in the region, has been there for more than a decade now. In this region, in most of the countries power has been won and lost through guns in the past.

While elections are the currency sustaining one’s legitimacy, they have not removed guns from the equation. In Ethiopia, the ruling coalition which came to power through guns and controlled the country with an iron fist, is going through reforms at a break-neck speed. Much of the rest of the region is in no mood to catch up any time soon. The coming elections in that country will show the rest of the world how far the ongoing reforms go.

In Tanzania, rulers have changed with time but the party of independence is still going strong. So, what are Lissu’s chances should his party pick him for 2020? As things stand now, Lissu or any other contender for power from the opposition will have to wait for more years down the line to be a resident of Chamwino.

But you cannot fault the man for dreaming.

Mr Mwakibete is a socio-political commentator and analyst based in Dar es Salaam