OPINION: The opposition needs a message going into 2020

Mwananchi newspaper ran a story about the assessment of some MPs from the opposition Chadema and the chances of opposition victory in parliamentary contests in the General Election of 2020. The three MPs quoted in the story all mentioned a research conducted which pointed to a better than expected political outcome. They offered no details of that particular research.

They argued that if the coming general election would be held under free and fair circumstances they would win. They pointed to the current unfriendly political reality where they argued they are prevented to even hold meetings public or otherwise, and the many times they have been arrested or have to deal with long legal battles which keep them occupied. CCM’s Ngemela Lubinga cast doubts over the purported research cited by Chadema MPs, instead pointing to President John Magufuli’s record since coming to power, claiming that the president had fulfilled major promises for “100 per cent”, and that (general) elections were fair all the time.

The political field in Africa, and Tanzania in particular has never been even in the multiparty era.

Incumbents whether from opposition parties or from the ruling party have enjoyed certain undue advantages against rivals within the party. It has been argued before that sometimes a challenge against a serving MP is a ploy from rival political parties, especially CCM to trick opposition parties to pick a politically weak candidate all in the name of fair internal party processes.

Being an incumbent in our politics affords one name recognition and a network his or her challengers can hardly match up. The odds are stacked heavily against any challengers within the same party. For them to fall, there has to be a combination of a number of factors of which transparency in internal party processes is at the bottom of the list.

Some party positions are not even open for election, the individuals to fill them are merely appointed.

And challenging those at the very top of the pile of power structure within these parties, though allowed by party constitutions is practically frowned upon, despite public statements to the contrary.

Clearly though Chadema MPs in the story did not intend to point to their own political party’s many cracks when it comes to fairness. They were throwing stones at state institutions especially the electoral body, the police and the registrar of political parties as embodying the uneven nature of the political climate. But what about the message?

It is the question Dr Wilbroad Slaa posed to the opposition during a press conference in September, 2015, pointing to a long history of opposition parties with a message that was well understood by many voters across the country. At that point, he was on his way out of competitive politics, he said their main agenda had been corruption, but found himself lost.

The past points to opposition parties bettering the political odds stacked against them depending on their message and how well it is delivered. Their numbers in parliament increased after each general election because they had a clear message to voters.

For more than a quarter of a century, opposition parties have anchored their efforts for political success against fighting corruption. Voters seemed to trust their message and ignored all the misgivings they had about their weak internal party processes, allegations of corruption and misuse of party funds, claims of nepotism, fractured network around the country, inherent contradictions within formed political alliances, to name but a few.

The uneven nature of the political field is a creature of internal party politics exported to the wider stage of national politics. However this does not appear to be a top factor in mind of voters in deciding to cast their votes a certain way.

It is the message.

This is what is lacking this time around. There is no coherent message from the opposition that can convince voters as was the case in previous elections.

Uneven political field is a constant dynamic. It is always there. A political alliance fractured beyond recognition, vastly changed political realities since 2015, countless defections, lack of fundamental internal reforms, and a formidable political opponent like no other they have faced since the return of multiparty politics coupled with the lack of a clear message resonating with voters and their daily challenges and problems will decisively work against opposition parties come 2020.