Re-imagining Tanzanian economic model
It is June 2020 and no one can tell you for fact, what September 2020 shall look like, not after the vagaries to economies of the world, wrought by the novel corona virus and its disease Covid- 19.
The United Republic of Tanzania is not in isolation even if, we, unlike our neighbours and other countries of the world, chose not to put the country in lockdown, partial let alone, total.
Be that as it may, there is no doubt that we, like many economies of the world, must do what was possibly unthinkable just six months ago-that is, rethink our economic model and adjust, readjust or even significantly abandon what we have been used to-for the single reason that the pandemic on our hands has morphed from a health pandemic to an economic meltdown of gargantuan proportions.
Why is it imperative for us to re-imagine the economy?
Foremost, it looks like Cov-id-19 is here to stay and we are going to learn to live with it those of us who survive now that its kill rate is not exactly what initial projections looked like-grim.
The report on re-opening and Re-Imagining Africa by Mckinsey and Co says that Africa is going to lose 150 million jobs.
Tanzania, with our working population of 27 million but formal jobs at 6.8 million and the 21 million or so informal sector jobs can be expected to lose between 3-5 million jobs.
That projection, while unscientific looks at the ripple effect of formal job losses which by extension results in job losses in the informal sector.
The Tanzanian economy has for close to 3 decades been oscillating between the former government control of all aspects of production and marketing and the experimenting with a free market economy.
Whether this experiment has succeeded or failed depends on who you speak with and what they want to believe or would wish you to believe. It is best called an experiment because it is neither 100 percent government nor free market.
What is worse, the conversation and scientific assessment is a political hot potato that no one in power in Tanzania would like to countenance addressing that is, until the novel Covid-19 came calling.
The issue needs, now more than ever, to be addressed and to do so needs political will in an year in which the planned Tanzania General Elections are but 4 silly months away.
Is the political class willing and able to discuss? Some other the issues that need to be discussed include but are not limited to: that while publicly we say we are for free market economics, vestiges of Ujamaa continue to dominate the party of workers and farmers approach to private wealth and property ownership.
The recent cashew nuts fiasco is still a fresh reminder that Tanzania needs to harmonize the greater good of welfare state and the ruthless system of free market economics and here is why; in a free market system the 3rd parties , rather than the farmer are always likely to benefit the most.
A welfare approach should cushion the farmer from the cut-throat free market approach while ensuring the farmer gets value for his labour and indeed the government gets its due taxes.
The establishment of mineral markets in different regions including Geita, are an example that we can learn from. Prior to these markets, it was a case of everyone for himself.
If there is some-thing the 5th Phase Government of President Dr John Pombe Magufuli has done right by these markets.
Just like that, gold nuggets and all other minerals now have designated markets where a prospector does his business in the open rather than face shadowy figures or cross borders to make their sale. It makes for reasons why Tanzania and by extension other EAC block countries, must reimagine their socio-economic approach.
It has taken a health crisis to remind us that the essence of a nation is not just wealth generation and profits, but that the socio-economic welfare of the citizens.
There is no sense in appealing to farmers and pastoralists sense of pastoralism when all they want is to make a decent living from what is theirs.
Socio-economic well being includes health care, education and decent jobs as well as housing.
Has Covid-19 shown us there is another way, a decent way to re-calibrate and re-think the world economies for greater good?
---------------------------------------------------------------
Oyoo is a research and communications consultant with Midas Touché East Africa
