Samia historic win: Puzzle of unprecedented voter turnout and her vow to crush protests

Listing Dar-es-Salaam, Arusha, Mwanza, Mbeya and Songwe as some of the host spots, she described the protests as “unpatriotic”.

“A patriot builds the country, not to tear down what was built by the energy and the sweat of the citizens. The government utterly condemns those happenings,” she said. “On the issue of the county's safety and the United Republic of Tanzania, there is no alternative but to use all the security tactics to remain with a safe country.”

While declaring her historic victory, the Independent National Electoral Commission (Inec) announced that Ms Hassan, of Chama cha Mapinduzi (CCM), won by clinching 31.9 million votes, translating to 97.66 percent of the total.

However, some observers have questioned the exceedingly high voter turnout for an election that was marred by chaos, including the destruction of election materials in several parts of the country and a heavy deployment of the police and military.

The turnout, which Inec put at 87 percent, dwarfs the last three presidential elections by up to 40 percentage points. In the 2020 polls, a total of 29.7 million voters registered to take part in the polls but only 50.72 percent turned out to vote. In 2015, the number of registered voters declined to 23.1 million, but the turnout was higher, at 67.34 percent. In 2010, the number of registered voters dipped further to 20.1 million, with an even lower voter turnout of just 42.84 percent. This year, however, a record 37.6 million voters were listed for the polls, and, according to Inec, more than 32 million of them turned out to vote.

That figure also gives Wednesday’s election one of the highest turnouts in recent elections in East Africa. The 2022 General Election in Kenya had a 64.77 percent turnout while the 2021 presidential polls in Uganda clocked 59.35 percent.

Kenyan activist Boniface Mwangi, who was earlier this year detained and tortured in Tanzania after he had gone there to attend a court appearance of opposition politician Tundu Lissu, also took to his social media platform to question the validity of Ms Hassan’s election.

“These results are fabricated, with zero evidence that 32 million Tanzanians voted,” wrote Mr Mwangi, who has announced that he will be seeking the presidency in Kenya in 2027.

“To suppress protests and cover up opposition to her election, she imposed an internet shutdown and media blackout. No independent media can show what’s happening,” he added.

Ms Hassan, in her acceptance speech, said the electioneering period is over and so it is time for them to “stand together as a country”.

“Chama Cha Mapinduzi, through myself, has received this certificate with respect and humility. This certificate is a confirmation of the faith by the citizens to hand me and CCM the surety to go implement our promises to improve, protect and further the respect and humaneness of the Tanzanian,” she said.

Also on Saturday, Mr Hussein Ali Mwinyi was sworn in as the president of Zanzibar after being declared the winner of the Wednesday elections in the semi-autonomous archipelago that joined with Tanganyika to form the United Republic of Tanzania in 1964.

By 1pm on Saturday, Ms Hassan had received her certificate. The swearing-in was expected to happen any time, and all eyes were on the Inec for a signal on when it would happen. Before the October 29 election, Inec had promised to announce the presidential results 72 hours after polling stations opened, and it kept its word.

Read: Police battle protests, internet disrupted, as Tanzania voting starts with chaos

The results were announced amid a crippling communication blackout following a total shutdown of the internet across the country.

Late on Friday, the US government increased the advisory level for visiting Tanzania from level 2 to 3. The Department of State has four levels of advisory. Level 1 is “exercise normal precautions”; level 2 means “exercise increased caution”; level three translates to “reconsider travel” while level 4 is “do not travel”.

The initial Level 2 advisory said: “Reports of country-wide demonstrations resulting in outbreaks of violence and roadblocks continue as the country waits for election results. There are locally enforced curfews in effect.”

The updated Level 3 advisory said in part: “Reconsider travel to Tanzania due to unrest, crime, terrorism…”

Amid the advisories, pressing questions included the actual number of casualties emerging from crackdowns by authorities against protesters and how long the internet shutdown would continue.

According to the United Nations, at least 10 deaths had been reported by Friday. On the other hand, the opposition Chama cha Demokrasia na Maendeleo (Chadema) said the deaths were as high as 700.

Read: Tanzania in turmoil: opposition claims 700 dead as election results loom

A joint statement by the foreign ministers of Canada, Norway and the United Kingdom on Friday raised concern over the reported number of casualties.

“There are credible reports of a large number of fatalities and significant injuries, as a result of the security response to protests, which began on October 29,” they stated. “We urge the authorities – as previously discussed with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs – to act with maximum restraint and respect the right of assembly and freedom of expression.”

The joint statement also made reference to the pre-election atmosphere in Tanzania.

“We remain concerned that the run-up to the elections was marked by harassment, abductions and intimidation of opposition figures, journalists and civil society actors. We call on the Tanzanian authorities to uphold their international commitments and ensure that all citizens can participate freely and safely in public life,” it said.

Tanzania’s Foreign Minister Thabit Kombo said in a BBC interview that the government was still gathering information.

“The UN is saying 10 people have lost their lives; Chadema says it could be up to 700,” BBC presenter Waihiga Mwaura posed.

Mr Kombo responded: “Well, at the moment, I am reading as you are reading. But let’s wait for the right, authorised information to be out.”

“At the moment, nobody can state how many were injured, how many suffered or how many properties were burnt. We are continuing to receive the reports of the vandalised properties,” he added.

Mr Kombo noted that some of the damaged property includes government offices, government cars and private property.

“We are continuing to receive those reports. At the moment, nobody can accumulate those numbers and say until all the data and figures are in place,” remarked Mr Kombo.

In her speech on Saturday, Ms Hassan said a majority of Tanzanians “were disappointed” by the destruction.

“They don’t build proper foundations for democracy in the country. Let us not condone these acts, and let us stand together to protect our country,” she said.

On the question of shutting down the internet, Mr Kombo explained that the action was because “small groups of vandals” were using it to communicate.

“They are going to stipulate and state clearly in their reports that they are communicating and there were alternatives that were given,” he said.

Mr Kombo also attempted to paint the chaos as a largely Dar es Salaam problem and not a Tanzania-wide issue. He noted that by Friday evening, even Dar es Salaam, the country’s commercial capital, had become “very, very peaceful”.

“I’ve been around today [Friday]. The restrictions are between 6pm and 6am. And that restriction means you have to have a reason to go out in order to maintain the peace in the country. But during the day, everybody is free to continue with their own work,” he said.

He was quick to add that they had provided all the observers with alternative methods of communication in the country.

Asked when the internet connectivity was likely to be restored, Mr Kombo said: “Hopefully, we are all looking forward for it to be back at least by tomorrow [Saturday].”

However, South Africa’s African National Congress (ANC) party, which had sent a delegation to Tanzania at the invitation of “our sister party” CCM, said in a statement on Friday that it had been unable to observe the elections due to lack of communication.

“For reasons that are currently unknown, a breakdown in communication occurred. As a result, the delegation was unable to observe any aspect of the elections. The Deputy Secretary-General will brief the office-bearers of the African National Congress on this matter,” it stated.

“We place our confidence in the regional bodies that are mandated to observe the overall integrity of the process and look forward to the comprehensive assessments of the accredited international observer missions,” the ANC added.

The BBC also spoke with Chadema’s International Secretary Deogratias Munishi who dismissed the election as “shambolic”.

“It doesn’t resemble anything close to an election,” he said.

Chadema was disqualified from contesting in the election ostensibly because it refused to sign the electoral code of conduct, insisting that there needed to be reforms before elections could take place. Its leader, Mr Lissu, is currently in remand as he faces a treason trial.

Mr Munishi wondered why the East African Community (EAC), the Southern African Development Community (SADC) and the African Union (AU) were mute on the goings-on in Tanzania.

“The current chairperson of the EAC—the president of the Republic of Kenya, President [William] Ruto—has to step out to provide leadership in the region; to intervene,” he said.

SADC, he noted, has an interim chair in Cyril Ramaphosa of South Africa.

“They have to provide leadership because we don’t want the situation in Tanzania to escalate to what has happened in Madagascar,” he said.

Regarding the AU, Mr Munishi posed: “We know the AU has an observation mission in Tanzania. They have not issued any statement so far, but they should be careful and they should intervene.”

Ms Hassan is poised for a smooth sailing in the legislative chambers as results showed that CCM had won all the parliamentary seats except two.

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