Seeds of Zanzibar political crisis planted long ago:Don planted urbing

Dar es Salaam. The night of November 1, 2010 will always remain in Zanzibar’s political history as an extraordinary one. The Zanzibar Electoral Commission (ZEC) had just announced Dr Ali Mohammed Shein, the CCM candidate, as the winner of the presidential election. What makes the night memorable is that Dr Shein’s archrival for the isles top seat, CUF’s Mr Seif Shariff Hamad, who was also present at the Bwawani Hotel hall where the announcement was being made, accepted defeat for the first time and went on to give Dr Shein a congratulatory hug.

The moment was received by Zanzibaris, independent observers and the international community as ushering a new begging for the Indian Ocean archipelago. Many thought that the Zanzibar that they used to know, the one which was toned by political hatred and engulfed by post-election violence was not the thing of the past. In the 2010 elections, Dr Shein received 50.1 per cent of the vote cast and Mr Hamad or popularly, Mr Hamad, received 49.1 per cent. Even with the dismal margin Mr Hamad didn’t cry foul and none of his supporters protested. This was a moment when it dawned on people that after years of trouble, Zanzibaris had now found their own way out of their problems. They had come up with the new constitution in the same year, which, avoiding the zero-sum game in Zanzibar politics allowed the Government of National Unity (GNU). This enabled both the victor and the loser to share power as the president and first vice president.As the events were unfolding, it was hard then to predict that only five years ahead a political crisis caused by elections could unfold.

Circumstances leading to 2010 elections success

The Zanzibar’s Director for Public Prosecution (DPP) and former clerk of the isles House of Representatives Mr Ibrahim Mzee Ibrahim captures in a nutshell the whole journey from 1995 to 2010 elections in his paper entitled Relationship between the Zanzibar’s Government of National Unity (GNU) and the new Constitution of the United Republic of Tanzania, presented at the capacity building seminar on December 2013 to the Members of House of Reps before participating in the Constituent Assembly. In his paper Mr Ibrahim gives a detailed background of a deep-seated hatred in Zanzibar politics and troubled elections since the reestablishment of multiparty system in 1992.

In every election year, 1995, 2000 and 2005 CUF presidential candidate Mr Hamad denounces the results, his supporters protest in the streets facing the full force of the law enforcing and security organs. The worst accounts happened in 2001 when 26 CUF supporters were shot dead by police in Pemba in the post-election violent confrontations. Many others sought refuge in Pemba and Somalia. Protesters were calling for fresh elections after the disputed October 2000 polls.

Muafaka (Consensus)

In the 1990’s the animosity between CUF and CCM supporters was so much that CUF supporters did not attend funeral ceremonies of CCM supporters and vice versa. Attempts to find amicable solution to the tensions were first made between September 1999 and July 2000 under the backing of the then secretary general of Commonwealth Chief Emeka Anyaokou. The second agreement between the two parties was signed in October 2001, “while the first agreement was completely not effected, the second agreement was partly enforced and led to the constitutional amendments to remove some of the contentious issues, but proposals on the question of forming a joint government were never touched,” argues Mr Ibrahim.

In 2005 Mr Jakaya Mrisho Kikwete became a president of Tanzania and in his maiden speech to parliament he expressed his sentiments on the Zanzibar political divide and promised to try his best to address the situation. From that a third round of talks between CCM and CUF officials took place in Bagamoyo. By 2008 a ten member committee comprising of five from each party had arrived to a number of agreements including the formation of the Government of National Unity (GNU). When the matter reached the CCM’s National Executive Committee which sat in Butiama in March 2008, the ruling party resolved that the fate of GNU must be decided by Zanzibaris in an opinion poll. “At that time CUF was not satisfied with CCM’s decision and announced that they would no longer participate in the talks with CCM.”

The 2010 election was already fast approaching. Tensions were rising in Zanzibar. Concerns were rife in the region that the next hotspot for post-election violence would be in the isles after Kenya.

To the surprise of many in November 5, 2009 Mr Hamad and the then Zanzibar President Amaan Abeid Karume met for unscheduled talks and greed to reconcile for the betterment of Zanzibar. Their agreement was tabled in the House of Representatives in January 2010 and in the House members insisted that it was only through reconciliation that all political wrangles and hatred would be wiped out. The motion to form the GNU was passed and led to the July 2010 referendum with 66.4 per cent YES votes and 33 per cent NOs.

According to a renown historian and political commentator based in Zanzibar Prof Abdul Sherrif the agreement between Mr Karume and Mr Hamad was unique and planted the spirit of reconciliation in the hearts of the Zanzibaris. “It was a locally made agreement that focused on reconciliation. For the first time there were no commonwealth hands or leaders of the Union government who were trying to make us resolve our internal issues. It’s our leaders who realized the need for dialogue and that made people in Zanzibar to finally accept one another as brothers and sisters regardless of the differences,” said Prof Sherriff. It was of that spirit that Mr Hamad didn’t challenge results and became the First Vice President after the elections with his party also getting a number of ministerial dockets.

What went wrong?

According to Prof Sheriff, the structure of the GNU was not perfect, but the reconciliation spirit started to decline slowly. “No one expected it (GNU) to be perfect and it was the duty for those in power to make it better, but in turn rifts started. It is should be noted that there were still voices of opposition within CCM when the GNU was discussed but they (opposition) were a minority during Karume’s reign, however when Dr Shein took the reign those voices slowly became powerful,” he notes.

In fact the tensions within the GNU had reached a level where CUF’s House of Representative and cabinet members boycotted the final session of the House. Dr Shein was to address the House before officially dissolving it. CCM House reps were so furious by CUF’s boycott that they passed a motion to block Mr Hamad from attending the session.

The new union constitution

As Judge Joseph Warioba’s Constitutional Review Commission (CRC) was gathering the views of people on the content of New Constitution especially on the Union structure the rift within GNU was growing deeper. In the beginning CUF bigwigs in Zanzibar championed for a treaty based Union with Mainland Tanzania. They later, however, settled for the three-tier union structure as proposed by the CRC.

CCM in Zanzibar remained committed to the party’s traditional policy of the current two government union structure. But the opposition alliance Ukawa, which was formed by Chadema, CUF, NCCR-Mageuzi and NLD walked out of the Constituent Assembly after days of CUF and CCM members trading insults and showing deep animosity on live television.

From this atmosphere tense elections were expected. But no one expected problems to reach the stage of annulment of the results. “President Shein was supposed to show political maturity and let the results tabulation continue. President Kikwete as the Commander in Chief is supposed to ensure democracy triumphs in the Isles.” He said President-Elect John Pombe Magufuli is going to inherit the crisis and if not it is not well managed it might end up affecting the whole country..