Is Chadema headed the CUF, NCCR-Mageuzi way?

“I am still a member of Chadema,” Mr Mrema told The Citizen. “Simply residing in an area does not qualify one as a member of that branch unless formal procedures are followed. This was neither discussed nor executed according to party guidelines.”

The incident has revived speculation that Chadema could be following in the footsteps of CUF and NCCR-Mageuzi—two parties that once enjoyed strong national support before succumbing to internal splits.

But Chadema’s secretary general, Mr John Mnyika, dismissed the comparisons as premature and unfounded.

“This party has been tested in fire. People have predicted our collapse for over 20 years, yet we continue to grow. Chadema was built to endure storms,” said Mr Mnyika.

He highlighted a series of internal rifts the party has survived, including the 2004 leadership shake-up that led to Freeman Mbowe becoming chairman. That contest prompted the departure of then-deputy secretary general Dr Paul Kyala, who later founded Sauti ya Umma (SAU).

“Despite that breakaway, Chadema gained momentum. In the 2005 General Election, we fielded Mr Mbowe, who secured over 668,000 votes and 11 parliamentary seats,” he noted.

He cited further episodes of resilience, including the fallout with the late deputy chair Chacha Wangwe in 2008, and the defection of 40 Dar es Salaam-based members led by Mr Mecky Mzirai.

“None of those departures dented our public support. In fact, we grew stronger. In 2010, Dr Willibrod Slaa garnered 2.2 million votes, translating to 27 percent of the national vote and 48 seats in Parliament,” Mr Mnyika said.

In 2015, following the dramatic expulsions of Prof Kitila Mkumbo, Zitto Kabwe and Samson Mwigamba—who later formed ACT-Wazalendo—Chadema once again defied expectations.

Under the opposition coalition Ukawa, the party backed former Prime Minister Edward Lowassa as its presidential candidate, leading to its strongest showing yet: 6.07 million votes and 73 parliamentary seats.

According to Mr Mnyika, Chadema’s staying power lies in its institutional framework and the loyalty of its members.

“This is not a fragile party. We have been shaped by both internal and external resistance. We keep rising,” he said.

However, some political analysts warn that unless Chadema recommits to consultative leadership, it could suffer the same fate as NCCR and CUF.

A political analyst and law lecturer at the University of Dar es Salaam Dr Onesmo Kyauke, said Chadema’s current leadership must learn from CCM’s tradition of structured and inclusive decision-making.

“From the days of TANU, CCM has thrived on collective decision-making. That culture is what holds it together. If Chadema continues to make unilateral declarations, it risks factionalism,” he said.

Dr Kyauke was especially critical of Chadema’s ‘No Reforms, No Election’ posture, describing it as lacking consensus: “When Mr Lissu became chair, he should have consulted party members broadly before declaring that position. Leadership must build unity, not dictate direction.”

Prof Makame Ali Ussi of the State University of Zanzibar also emphasised the importance of participatory leadership.

“When members feel alienated from key decisions, they withdraw or rebel. Unity grows when decisions reflect the collective will,” he said.

A political science lecturer at the University of Dodoma, Dr Paul Luisulie, said the party’s boycott strategy could prove divisive.

“‘No Reforms, No Election’ is difficult to apply when some members wish to engage electorally. The party must clarify its strategy to avoid confusion,” he noted.