EAC expansion: An illusion of progress

On August 19, 2023, The Citizen published an article titled, “Somalia to join East African Community [EAC] this year, says Secretary General.” This reflects the confidence and, apparently, the Secretary General’s hope that Somalia would join the EAC. On February 2, 2023, I published an op-ed piece warning that “admitting Somalia in the East African Community will be a mistake” (The Citizen). I continue to hold that opinion. It is an illusion to think that admitting Somalia into the EAC at this point would constitute progress towards integration in the East African region.

Proponents of Somalia’s admission into the EAC claim that “[t]here is a lot Somalia hopes to gain but also the region has a lot to gain from Somalia because of its connectivity to Middle East as well as the diaspora in Europe, America and everywhere.” However, they don’t explain why those gains cannot be realised now when Somalia is already a member of the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), of which Kenya and Uganda are also members. On top of that, Somalia is also a member of the International Conference on the Great Lakes Region (ICGLR), of which all current members of the EAC are also members. What magic does the EAC have that would enable it to unleash the potential for increased trade with and through Somalia that cannot be realised already when Somalia and the current EAC members are, in effect, a “free trade area.”

Admitting Somalia into the EAC is a diversion tactic common to institutions that are struggling to solve “domestic” challenges – entrenched non-trade barriers and political and security tensions between some of the current members. What the EAC is trying to do is analogous to what leaders who face challenges at home typically do. They try to divert attention from domestic problems by making themselves spokespeople on international issues. Bringing additional fragile states only weakens the EAC and stretches thin its meager resources, as the situation with the DRC demonstrates.

It is important to note a disconnect in the debate over regional economic integration in Africa and, specifically, in East Africa. Even though regional economic integration is a regular topic at African Union and regional conferences, the topic does not receive much attention in local or national politics. Parliamentary and even presidential candidates often face off without any mention of aspirations for economic integration. Politicians act as if the benefits of economic integration are either so obvious or the impact so far removed from their constituencies that it does not require much discussion. It is taken for granted that the more the countries in a bloc, the better. That is part of the reason why most African countries belong to a multitude of regional blocs. Burundi, Kenya, and Rwanda belong to five. The DRC belongs to six!

In the 2023/24 ministerial budget speech by Tanzania’s Minister of Foreign Affairs and East African Cooperation, Somalia was not mentioned even once. It is highly doubtful that members of parliament are even paying attention to the discussions on Somalia joining the EAC, let alone trying to predict the impact it would have on their constituencies and on Tanzania in general. When they hear about it, it is possible that they think it is not their business; they leave it completely to the EAC Legislative Assembly.

However, discussions and debates on economic integration cannot simply be confined to secretariat headquarters. Decisions about membership have real impact on businesses and ordinary people, if agreements are actually implemented. Moreover, since the specifics of the agreements are usually not readily available, lawmakers need to be aware of what is being negotiated and share that with their constituents.

The EAC leaders were jubilant (at least it appeared so) when the DRC was admitted into the EAC as its seventh member early last year. Since then, tensions between the DRC and Rwanda have only increased. Admitting Somalia into the EAC at this point, given its fragility, does not carry much promise, except a thrill that come from unexamined proclamations.