Tanzania’s economic indicators presently tell a reassuring story. Inflation remains relatively stable, credit growth has expanded, activity at the Dar es Salaam Stock Exchange reflects renewed confidence, and strategic sectors — particularly minerals, agro-processing, digital infrastructure and energy — continue to attract both domestic and foreign interest.
The policy ambition to attract approximately $15 billion in foreign direct investment signals not only confidence but intent. Yet the central question is not whether Tanzania can generate investment momentum; it is whether Tanzania can institutionalise it.
In recent months, Tanzania has positioned itself strategically within global supply chains for critical minerals such as graphite and nickel, sectors that are increasingly intertwined with energy transition geopolitics and electric mobility value chains.
Projects such as the Mahenge Graphite Project and the development activities around Tembo Nickel Corporation place the country within conversations that extend well beyond regional markets.
Simultaneously, Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) negotiations involving global players such as ExxonMobil reinforce Tanzania’s long-term energy aspirations.
However, international capital — particularly institutional capital — does not assess projects in isolation. It evaluates jurisdictions.
The renewed geopolitical focus by the United States on securing access to strategic natural resources under the current administration illustrates this dynamic clearly. Energy security and critical mineral access are no longer commercial issues alone; they are strategic priorities.
Yet alongside this engagement, diplomatic commentary has been candid, with the Acting US Ambassador recently describing aspects of the political climate as “concerning” and “alarming.” Whether one agrees with that assessment is secondary to the fact that such language enters global risk modelling frameworks immediately.
Diplomatic signals influence credit committees, insurance premiums and sovereign risk assessments.
This is why investment policy cannot be separated from governance policy.
Tanzania’s Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) target is ambitious and commendable, but quantity of inflow is less important than quality of structure.
Are we attracting long-term strategic investors who build domestic capacity, deepen local value addition and reinvest earnings?
Or are we primarily facilitating capital that remains transactional and mobile? The answer depends on regulatory predictability.
Licensing frameworks must be clear and consistently applied. Tax regimes must be transparent and rules-based rather than discretionary.
Dispute resolution mechanisms must function credibly and efficiently. Public–private partnership agreements must be structured with legal precision so that risk allocation is understood ex ante rather than contested ex post.
These are not academic preferences; they are pricing determinants.
The growth in stock exchange activity and domestic credit expansion suggests rising confidence within the financial system, yet macroeconomic prudence remains critical. Credit growth without asset quality discipline can generate systemic vulnerabilities.
Resource revenue anticipation without fiscal restraint can encourage premature expenditure.
History across emerging markets demonstrates that natural resources amplify governance quality; they do not compensate for its absence.
If Tanzania succeeds in pulling together LNG, strategic minerals and infrastructure expansion simultaneously, the scale of capital inflow will require exceptional fiscal discipline.
Revenue management mechanisms must be transparent and insulated from political cycles.
Sovereign debt accumulation must be calibrated carefully against realistic revenue timelines.
Inter-ministerial coordination must be seamless, particularly where fiscal stabilisation clauses and long-term concession agreements are involved. The discipline required is not episodic; it is institutional.
At the regional level, Tanzania is increasingly assessed as part of a broader East African investment corridor. Private equity funds, regional venture capital platforms and development finance institutions often evaluate the bloc collectively.
This means regulatory predictability in Tanzania affects not only national competitiveness but regional perception.
In a capital-constrained global environment, investors will prioritise jurisdictions that demonstrate coherence between policy ambition and institutional execution.
There is no shortage of opportunity. The real test is whether Tanzania can convert opportunity into durable confidence.
Economic diplomacy has intensified, investment promotion efforts have been strengthened and sectoral priorities have been clearly articulated.
The next phase requires something less visible but more consequential: disciplined governance, predictable regulation and fiscal maturity capable of sustaining large-scale capital over decades.
Tanzania has momentum. The coming years will determine whether that momentum evolves into maturity — and whether ambition translates into institutional credibility that withstands geopolitical scrutiny and market discipline alike.
Amne Suedi is Managing Director of Shikana Investment and Advisory, Honorary Consul of Switzerland to Tanzania, and Chair of the Switzerland-Tanzania Chamber of Commerce. Over 15 years, she has facilitated over $300 million in capital deployment across African markets, specializing in commercial business and finance investment law, cross-border M&A, and PPP structuring. You can contact her at [email protected]
