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Magufuli’s legacy: Are we ready to count the cost?

The late President John Magufuli.

What you need to know:

  • Magufuli is a hero to some, and a villain to others. So, is Tanzania ready to openly discuss what happened during his reign?

The subject of the legacy of the late President John Pombe Magufuli (JPM), who died exactly a year ago, tends to attract so much controversy in Tanzania and beyond.

Magufuli is a hero to some, and a villain to others. So, is Tanzania ready to openly discuss what happened during his reign?

This subject reminds me of a newspaper story I read back in 2005. The moment I saw a big, bold headline emblazoned on the front page of the newspaper, knowing the background to the story, I thought that all hell was about to break loose.

The story revealed that a certain Cabinet minister was having an affair with a university student, and that they had had a baby together. I was in the same faculty with that student, so this was not news to me. Moreover, while some may sanctimoniously judge the minister as “cheating scum”, given the heavy burden that our political masters carry, does it matter if the high and mighty unwind by sowing wild oats?

What the story revealed next though was damning. It said the minister used his office to gift his girlfriend and his two relatives government houses which were being sold at throwaway prices then.

I thought that such allegations would have been a career-ending blow, but I was naïve. Not in Tanzania. The rest, as they say, was history.

Magufuli started his presidential tenure with great vigour and energy. He knew that Tanzanians are suckers for political performances, and he was the master of drama and the spectacular. Within months, he was riding high in political polls with a mind-boggling 96 percent approval rating!

But some of us were a bit uneasy about him. So, in pursuit of some reassurance, I called a friend who had worked closely with him when he was a minister. The discussion was enlightening.

“People assume that this is just a ploy...that the wind is going to be knocked out of his sails, but that is not going to happen!” he declared ominously.

My friend went on to share several stories that provided great insights into the man Tanzanians had made President, useful titbits such as “he doesn’t forgive; once you are in his grudge list, you are in it forever”. And, as if I needed more unsettling stories, he then went on to share a vivid story that highlighted the man’s cold-blooded capacity for vengeance.

They come in all sorts.

I have known people who were on the receiving end of that – men whose only “crime” was to assume that their expertise gave them authority to speak boldly on matters related to their work. How foolish – thinking that having risen to the top of your career after 30 years of professional work gives you the right to contradict the big man What nonsense!

Had it not been for last year’s change of guard, they would still be languishing in jail today.

Some of the stories I heard that day became a matter of legend afterwards, being spoken in hushed tones in closed groups everywhere. Few people realise how close to the truth they actually are.

I got the opportunity to apply the insights handed over to me then less than a year later when Magufuli banned political meetings, and Chadema came up with Operation Ukuta to resist that.

Scholars opine that authoritarian leaders can be stopped from becoming fully-fledged dictators if they face solid opposition early in their reigns to raise the cost of repression and highlight the virtue of inclusive decision-making.

I once met with an influential CCM operative then and, while I could gather that he was not very enthusiastic about the direction that the nation was taking, I observed that he had no fight within him. He was kicked out shortly afterwards. So, if CCM wasn’t going to rein in their man, was the Opposition capable of doing so? Ukuta was going to be a litmus test.

Considering Magufuli’s psychological profile, I knew that he was not going to buckle, so I wasn’t surprised when a religious leader who was part of the team that had gone to implore him to change his mind told me that he refused to yield. For the Opposition though, Ukuta was a make or break situation. Back-pedalling then meant that their lot was going to worsen significantly. Subjecting the rule of law to rule of man has serious consequences to all involved.

Unfortunately, the Opposition backed down, and the populace quickly capitulated.

I tend to think that Ukuta was a massive missed opportunity. Yes, blood would have been spilt that day – that is what happens when citizens making legitimate political demands are considered enemies of the state. But Ukuta could have achieved what the 1960 Sharperville Massacre and the 1976 Soweto Uprising did – to unmask the brutality of the state, and deny the oppressors any modicum of political legitimacy.

In the aftermath of the Ukuta non-event, is it any wonder that everything that was wrong with Tanzania’s political system intensified? Blokes such as Paul Makonda and Lengai ole Sabaya became the stars of Tanzania’s politics afterwards. To date, Makonda has an unenviable record of being barred from the US for “flagrant denial of the right to life”. Sometimes it doesn’t take much to know that the system is truly and utterly broken.

It is said that the road to hell is paved with good intentions. Whether what was done meant well or not, the pain that was caused needs to be acknowledged and lessons learned.