Politicians and their outlandish claims: the most recent episode

President Magufuli will be a one-term president; that according to Chadema national chairman Freeman Mbowe who was quoted telling his fellow party members in Tanga while launching a local branch of his party. While telling them they have taken too long to defeat CCM in that region, he vowed should the president win a second term in 2020 he will retire from politics.

Mbowe argued that President Magufuli will be a one term president because his rule does not care about human rights; adding that “we made a mistake to elect the fifth president as we are all suffering.” I’m not sure whether he saw the irony in his statement on the part of “making a mistake”. This is not enough for a sitting president to be defeated in a general election.

Politicians the world over are known for their outlandish statements with the US president Donald Trump being the ultimate champion. Zitto Kabwe has always cautioned against saying too much; as the future is unpredictable, that politicians should be reserved in their statements.

In many ways, at the moment, we have what can best be described as a “political stalemate” where neither side of the political divide has made any significant gains against the opposite side. By-elections in different parts of the country delivered the same political outcome.

There are two ways one can interpret Mbowe’s statement. He told his audience that they were “making preparations” for 2020 to ensure that they make history by unseating a president and ending the political run of one of the longest, uninterrupted ruling political parties in Africa. He offered no details of the preparations being made.

Here Mbowe presented himself as a man with a vision of a better future for his party and the country. A man who is convinced of what is to come. The problem however is that in the last few years, he has offered contradictory statements about the same issues or individuals. In 2015 he launched a scathing attack on Edward Lowassa as he threw himself into the ring to contest his former party’s presidential primaries, and at one point they told public rallies that they had already picked a presidential candidate. He completely changed his tune when Lowassa joined Chadema. Overnight one wondered where his convictions had gone to.

Instead of these all or nothing statements, one would expect from Chadema leadership to offer an assessment of how their parliamentarians have done so far in their constituencies since 2015. This could be a better gauge of how his party will fare in 2020.

The other way of looking at his statement can be linked to an honorable exit of a man who at one time presided over a party at its political pick to the point it grew into a movement which offered a credible alternative to CCM before internal demons came out of the shadows to play sending the party into its current state where, like CCM, it polarizes opinions, and no coherent national agenda; one which can be embraced by people of all walks of life.

After the debacle of 2015 and a gamble that did not pay off, there are those who expected to see heads roll in Chadema. That did not happen. The moment of reckoning was postponed as party leaders pointed to increased parliamentary seats as a result of their political gamble; that to a party which was expected to add its parliamentary representation whether a defector joined or not.

Should things not go the way he said they will in 2020, then Mbowe will be able to go out gracefully and avoid the humiliation of a power contest like the one currently tearing apart one of their allies in Ukawa-CUF, because at that point should they fail to add to their current parliamentary seats then his position as party chairman could become untenable.

The opposition has always benefited from the colossal political mistakes CCM have made over the many years of it being in power and their arrogance but that has never translated into a real vote of confidence for the opposition. Chadema can start by demonstrating the exact differences, say between their economic policies and the ones the government in power is implementing. This will go a long way in painting the picture of what awaits us should we vote CCM out in 2020.

Then again given how politicians easily change their words, we would be too gullible to take Mbowe’s statement at face value.

If President Magufuli wins in 2020 and Mbowe doesn’t go into an early retirement and you get confused then you have not been paying attention.