IN MY HUMBLE OPINION: Are we really a donor country? Numbers don’t lie

So here I was pondering statements made by powers-that-be that Tanzania is rich and does not need foreign aid, in fact, it could be a donor country!

I am not an economist and definitely numbers are not my cup of tea! So I did what 99 percent of us do with internet connection – I Googled! This is what I stumbled on – a list of countries by nominal GDP on Wikipedia. At $62.2 billion Tanzania stood in 74th place on the list comprising of 185 countries. There you have it – proof! Tanzania was in the wealthiest half of the said list, just a few positions away from Luxembourg (69th) and well ahead of Bahrain (94th), both often mentioned as being super rich.

OK, so hold on, the fact that Luxembourg and Bahrain are super rich is common knowledge; that Tanzania is super rich, that is not known at all, let alone common knowledge. So here is what I deduced - these other two countries are tiny countries, Tanzania is big. This assumption didn’t satisfy me, so click, click, another Wikipedia list: population by country. Tanzania’s population is 58,005,463, Bahrain’s is 1,641,172, Luxembourg’s is 615,729. This certainly changes things. Now that I was getting the hang of it click, click, yet another Wikipedia list, GDP per capita by country, Tanzania $1,104 (158th place), Luxembourg $113,196 (1st), Bahrain $25,273 (34th). Now, this really changes things, doesn’t it?

Armed with this new list, I asked an economist to calculate how many times more were countries wealthier or less wealthy than Tanzania.

Based on the assumption that countries generally provide aid to those poorer than themselves, Tanzania could assist 28 countries that come after it on the GDP per capita list, notably South Sudan (last on the list, GDP/capital is 301 percent less than Tanzania’s), or Rwanda (167th, 34 percent less). But this is where this approach started raising doubts in my mind if at all it was the correct approach to being identified as a ‘donor country’ because by the same token, Zambia (154th, 18 percent more) could provide aid to Tanzania, as could South Africa (89th, 453 percent more). For long, Tanzania has been a recipient of aid, but from donors significantly wealthier than itself or even South Africa. Our donors have included Switzerland (2nd, 7483 percent more), the United States (7th, 5798 percent more) and Sweden (12th, 4541 percent more).

Thus, I have taken a very roundabout way to get to the obvious, Tanzania is not rich, not even close, and is very far from being a viable donor to any other country. This of course is obvious, to anyone who has ever visited any village, any poor neighborhood, any public hospital, or school in Tanzania, and has paid the slightest bit of attention.

Maybe our wealth is not Tanzania’s actual level of wealth, but say, the “immense” revenues that would come from the exploitation of Tanzania’s massive natural gas reserves. So another Google search surfaced an article in The East African, September 28, 2017: “… Tanzania has 57 trillion cubic feet (tcf) of largely undeveloped and proven natural gas reserves, from which it expects to reap close to $5 billion annually in gas exports revenue …” So how much would $5 billion annually add to the GDP? Here again I turned to a bit of help at hand to an economist, who pointed out that, based on Tanzania’s population level, $5 billion would have added a “mere” $86.20 to GDP per capita. The addition of this amount would not have shifted Tanzania in the rankings by a single position, it seems.

So if Tanzania is not a donor country, can the other portion, namely that “Tanzania does not need foreign aid”, be justified? Being the 29th poorest country on the planet certainly does not weigh in favour of this argument. And who would say no to free money anyway. So, it must be a matter of “want” rather than “need”. And not wanting foreign aid can, logically, only be attributed to not wanting the conditions that come attached. Based on recent public reiterations, it seems conditions for Western aid generally revolve around values and principles like democracy, rule of law, respect of human rights and private enterprise.

Principles and values that we have agreed to live by, at least as per my understanding of our Constitution. And even if they weren’t, what is the problem with embracing them, principles and values that have built the wealth of many nations?

If we don’t adhere to these conditions, the final interpretation then, is that foreign aid will be reduced. So are we saying we do not want aid to pre-empt a possible shortfall? Now this is getting a little convoluted, isn’t it?

I finally felt I had exhausted all my avenue of thinking and logic. I decided that arguing about whether we want aid is a matter of opinion but after all the math; it seems we still unfortunately need aid. Everybody is entitled to their own opinion but not to their own facts. So, click away my friends, check your facts while we continue to argue. IMHO