Private sector projections signal strong 2026 upturn

For many in the private sector, 2025 was less about spectacular expansion and more about recovery, consolidation and rebuilding confidence after years of uncertainty. That process, they say, has set the stage for a more dynamic 2026.

Banking anchors confidence

The financial sector has emerged as one of the strongest pillars of stability, reinforcing optimism across the wider economy. CRDB Bank Plc Group Chief Executive Officer Abdulmajid Nsekela describes 2025 as a year of “cautious optimism”, underpinned by disciplined macroeconomic management and steady reforms.

“The economy has shown resilience, supported by prudent macro-management, stable growth and ongoing reforms that continue to improve the ease of doing business,” he said.

According to Mr Nsekela, the rapid expansion of digital finance and fintech has been one of the most transformative developments, accelerating financial inclusion at a pace few would have anticipated a decade ago.

Mobile banking, digital payments and fintech partnerships have expanded access to financial services, particularly for small businesses and households previously excluded from the formal system.

Coupled with major infrastructure investments and deepening regional trade integration, banks are witnessing rising demand for digital banking solutions, SME financing and sustainable finance instruments.

“For banks, this environment supports increased demand for digital banking, SME financing and sustainable finance,” Mr Nsekela said. “Strong risk management and diversified funding remain foundational to resilience in a dynamic market.”

CRDB, he added, is positioning itself around client-centric digital solutions, sound governance and long-term growth.

This approach, he argues, will allow lenders to extend responsible credit, deepen payment ecosystems and mobilise domestic capital—an essential requirement as Tanzania looks to finance its development ambitions in 2026.

Manufacturing regains stability

For manufacturers, 2025 has been a year of relative relief after prolonged pressure from foreign exchange shortages, rising costs and operational uncertainty.

The Confederation of Tanzania Industries (CTI) says the stabilisation of the forex market has been a defining shift.

CTI chairman Hussein Sufian said improved access to foreign currency has eased the importation of raw materials, spare parts and machinery, restoring predictability to production planning.

“We have experienced the stabilisation of the forex problem that had become severe in recent years, with supply now being sustained,” he said.

He added that production costs have largely stabilised, while improved electricity availability has reduced disruptions—an especially important development for energy-intensive industries such as cement, steel and agro-processing.

As a result, manufacturers are beginning to refocus on efficiency, quality and market expansion rather than crisis management. Looking ahead to 2026, CTI expects firms to reinvest in capacity, defend quality standards and push more aggressively into regional and international markets as Tanzania’s industrial base consolidates.

Beyond large manufacturers, attention is also shifting towards strengthening small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), which form the backbone of industrial employment.

The Tanzania National Chamber of Commerce, Industry and Agriculture (TNCC) is advancing the One District One Product (ODOP) strategy in line with the Third Five-Year Development Plan (FYDP III). The initiative seeks to build competitive local industries anchored in innovation, skills and value addition.

TNCC industrial development manager Ezekiel Kahatano said the strategy aims to strengthen SME value chains by focusing on products that reflect each district’s unique resources, ranging from agro-processing to light manufacturing.

“By emphasising access to technical skills, technology, finance and markets, we want to empower youth, women and specialised artisans to participate more meaningfully in production and trade,” he said.

The ODOP approach is expected to boost domestic value addition, support exports and contribute directly to FYDP III targets on job creation, private sector growth and geographically balanced development.

Mining momentum returns

Few sectors reflect Tanzania’s stop-start investment journey as vividly as mining. Yet industry experts say 2025 may mark a genuine turning point after years of delays and policy uncertainty.

Procurement and supply chain consultant Humphrey Simba says the sector enters 2026 with renewed optimism, driven by revived large-scale projects, stronger governance and the growing participation of local miners.

The most significant milestone was the long-awaited launch of the Nyanzaga gold project under Sotta Mining Corporation—a $543 million investment that came on stream after nearly 17 years of uncertainty.

“This project is expected to significantly boost Tanzania’s gold production and strengthen supply chains linked to mining, including logistics, engineering services and equipment supply,” Mr Simba said.

More broadly, the project has restored confidence in a sector that struggled to regain momentum after earlier policy disruptions. Investors now see clearer signals around project approvals, licensing and local participation.

Tanzania is also positioning itself strategically in the global race for battery and industrial minerals. The groundbreaking of the Faru Graphite Project highlights a shift towards minerals critical for the energy transition, while rising gold reserves held by the central bank point to improved gold retention mechanisms and formalisation.

At the artisanal and small-scale level, the number of miners continues to grow, with their contribution increasingly reflected in official production statistics.

This trend has been supported by a larger budget for the Ministry of Minerals, aimed at strengthening oversight, safety and extension services.

Looking ahead, Mr Simba expects greater emphasis on building complete mining value chains—from extraction and processing to logistics and downstream manufacturing—particularly within special economic zones such as Buzwagi.

Capital markets roar back

One of the most striking developments of 2025 has been the turnaround at the Dar es Salaam Stock Exchange (DSE), where investor sentiment has shifted dramatically.

Exodus Advisory research associate Ashley Mambo said the year began with subdued trading, with daily turnover struggling to reach Sh500 million as investors adopted a wait-and-see approach. By year-end, daily turnover had surged to about Sh10 billion.

“That didn’t happen by chance,” she said. “It reflects renewed confidence from both local and institutional investors, driven by improving company fundamentals, stronger earnings outlooks and a more stable microeconomic environment.”

Banks have led capital inflows, buoyed by strong profitability, solid capitalisation and reliable dividend payouts. Investment companies have also attracted interest as investors seek diversified exposure, while manufacturing firms—extending beyond cement into cigarettes and breweries—have emerged as new magnets for capital.

“2025 has been a year of confidence coming back, higher turnover and more sectors in play,” Ms Mambo said. “The mood has shifted from caution to opportunity, and that’s a strong signal for the DSE and capital markets overall.”

She added that telecommunications and commercial services also drew interest, supported by growth in data usage, mobile payments and digital services that continue to generate robust cash flows.

Investment approvals signal confidence

Private sector optimism is further reflected in official investment figures. The Tanzania Investment and Special Economic Zones Authority (TISEZA) recorded a total of 915 investment projects valued at $10.95 billion between January and December 29, 2025—surpassing the 901 projects registered in 2024.

The figures were announced by the Minister of State in the President’s Office for Planning and Investment, Prof Kitila Mkumbo, during a ceremony in Bagamoyo District where investors received investment certificates alongside the release of the 2025 investment performance report.

The approved projects span manufacturing, construction and transportation and are expected to create more than 161,678 jobs.

Of the total, 182 projects are joint ventures between local and foreign investors, 284 are wholly Tanzanian-owned and 442 are foreign-owned—an indication, officials say, of Tanzania’s growing appeal to both domestic and international capital.

Brighter outlook for 2026

Taken together, private sector leaders say the resilience shown in 2025 has reshaped expectations for the year ahead. While risks remain—from global economic uncertainty to climate shocks—businesses believe the fundamentals are stronger than they have been in years.

With stabilised macroeconomic conditions, improving infrastructure, deeper financial markets and clearer sector policies, many see 2026 as a year when cautious optimism could turn into tangible expansion.

For the private sector, the message is clear: after weathering a challenging period, Tanzania is entering 2026 with renewed confidence that growth prospects are brighter—and more durable—than before.