Dar es Salaam. The seven-year primary education journey for 1,168,649 pupils culminates on Thursday with the national assessment examination, though more than 500,000 pupils who enrolled in Standard One in 2020 are missing.
According to the Statistical Abstract Report 2021 by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), 1,707,000 pupils, 854,000 boys and 853,000 girls, began Standard One in 2020.
Comparing those intake figures with the candidates sitting the Primary School Leaving Examination (PSLE) on Thursday, 538,351 pupils, roughly 31.5 percent, are unaccounted for.
However, education experts clarify that this discrepancy does not equate solely to dropouts.
Over a seven-year cycle, cohort variations stem from transfers, grade repetition, transitions to alternative education streams, and deaths.
The government says it has implemented measures to address attrition, including strengthening student motivation, constructing schools closer to settlements, and urging parental support.
The situation
Data from the Basic Education Statistics Tanzania (Best) 2021 report shows 1,706,134 pupils enrolled in Standard One in 2020.
Seven years later, only 1,168,649 are registered for the 2026 PSLE, a deficit of 537,485 pupils (31.5 percent).
Signs of decline emerged when the cohort reached Standard Four in 2023.
While 1,693,444 pupils registered for the Standard Four National Assessment (SFNA), only 1,545,607 sat the exams, leaving 147,837 (8.73 percent) absent.
Of those who sat, 1,287,934 (83.34 percent) passed to enter Standard Five, illustrating that despite high initial enrolment, significant numbers fall away before reaching final grades.
Core challenges
Education expert Dr Wilberforce Meena says the drop-off highlights systemic gaps in retaining learners through to completion.
“We do not perform sufficient early assessment to understand incoming learners. Children enter school with unaddressed learning difficulties, including basic literacy and numeracy gaps,” said Dr Meena, adding that early learning deficiencies compound as pupils advance.
“Efficiency between Standard One and Standard Four remains low because pupils receive insufficient support to master foundational reading, writing, and arithmetic,” added Dr Meena.
Dr Meena added that despite the fee-free primary education policy, indirect costs weigh heavily on families.
“Indirect contributions cause financially constrained parents to struggle, leading some children to drop out,” he explained, noting that teenage pregnancies, domestic environments, and socioeconomic pressures also contribute.
He urged Tanzania to diversify learning pathways: “Education must extend beyond formal schooling. Multiple learning systems should cater to diverse needs and abilities.”
Government response
Education, Science and Technology Minister, Prof Adolf Mkenda, acknowledged the retention challenges, noting that young males in mining and commercial areas face the highest dropout rates.
“We have taken major steps, including re-enrolling dropouts in line with directives from President Samia Suluhu Hassan,” said Prof Mkenda.
He highlighted infrastructure and welfare interventions, such as building schools nearer to communities, particularly in vast regions like Lindi, reintroducing school feeding schemes, and reviving sports programmes to boost retention.
Historical Best data shows similar trends in previous cohorts: of 1,751,221 pupils enrolled in Standard One in 2018, 1,230,780 sat the PSLE in 2024.
Likewise, from 1,526,474 pupils enrolled in 2019, 1,172,324 registered for the completion exam in 2025.
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