Will they survive? Polepole, Gwajima face uncertain future in Tanzania’s ruling CCM

The meetings were originally set for July 19 and August 20 respectively, with a key agenda being the endorsement of candidates for parliamentary and representative seats following internal primaries.

However, the schedule was revised due to an incomplete vetting process of aspirants, according to CCM Ideology, Publicity and Training Secretary, Mr Amos Makalla.

Mr Makalla confirmed that the final list of candidates for councillorship, parliamentary and House of Representatives positions will be announced on July 28.

Tensions have escalated over Mr Polepole and Mr Gwajima’s recent public statements, which are said to have misrepresented decisions made by CCM’s National Congress. Fellow party members have described the remarks as a betrayal, citing the party’s Leadership and Ethics Code.

Mr Polepole recently held an online press briefing in which he criticised the outcome of the National Congress held on January 18–19, 2025, which endorsed President Samia Suluhu Hassan as CCM’s presidential candidate for the upcoming General Election.

Mr Gwajima, for his part, has criticised the government’s handling of abductions and enforced disappearances, and urged CCM to support electoral reforms to allow opposition party Chadema to participate fully in the electoral process.

Their comments have sparked calls from within the party for disciplinary action, with some CCM cadres accusing the duo of “rocking the boat mid-journey.”

The two are not the first to face such pressure. On February 10, 2025, CCM expelled cadre Godfrey Malisa for similar conduct. In February 2020, the party also expelled former Foreign Minister Bernard Membe (now deceased) and issued a warning to retired Secretary General Abdulrahman Kinana.

Clause 8(ix) of the CCM Leadership and Ethics Code classifies such actions as betrayal, the party’s most serious offence. It states that if a member commits the offence deliberately, they face permanent expulsion. If the act is deemed unintentional, the punishment is a 48-month disciplinary period, and any expulsion must be made public.

Internal pressure mounts

Chairperson of CCM’s Parents’ Wing, Mr Fadhili Maganya, recently urged Mr Polepole and Mr Gwajima to openly declare their political ambitions instead of criticising the party publicly.

“This is nothing more than political theatre. These individuals are government leaders and party representatives. They had the opportunity to advise the President directly instead of seeking public attention,” Mr Maganya said.

He warned that if CCM does not take decisive action against such behaviour, it risks losing the historical direction that has enabled its continued rule since the start of multiparty politics.

Another CCM cadre, Mr Khamis Mgeja, warned against treating Mr Polepole leniently, describing him as “sabotaging the boat mid-journey.”

“You can’t have someone punching holes in the boat and still claiming to be a loyal CCM member. That’s hypocrisy. He is an activist,” said Mr Mgeja, a former CCM regional chairman for Shinyanga.

Party insiders have indicated that the NEC may discuss disciplinary action against the two during its upcoming meeting.

A member of both the CC and NEC, speaking on condition of anonymity, said Mr Polepole’s criticism of the National Congress amounted to betrayal.

“It is unacceptable for a CCM member to suggest that proper procedures were not followed, when everything was done in accordance with party rules and the constitution,” the source said.

He added that Mr Polepole was attempting to mislead the public by implying that President Hassan is completing her second term, which is not the case.

“The two-term limit applies to a sitting President, not a Vice President. President Hassan assumed office after serving as Vice President and is currently in her first term. She is eligible for a second term,” he said.

According to him, Mr Polepole’s conduct warrants expulsion in line with party regulations.

Analysts weigh in

Political analysts have echoed similar sentiments, with some predicting severe consequences for the outspoken cadres.

“They have consistently made statements that clearly contradict the party’s official position. Within CCM, such behaviour is rarely tolerated,” said Dr Onesmo Kyauke.

Prof Makame Ali Ussi of the State University of Zanzibar (SUZA) said the party is unlikely to ignore the matter but questioned whether expulsion was imminent.

“Even if they are not expelled, the meetings will address their conduct. They may be cautioned or reprimanded. It is hard to imagine CCM convening such critical meetings and doing nothing,” he said.

He added that the party would not suffer any major loss if it decided to part ways with the two, as it has a large membership base.

Candidate vetting continues

Meanwhile, the NEC will also be tasked with approving a shortlist of candidates who will proceed to the next round of internal voting. The vetting process, initially scheduled to conclude on July 19, has now been pushed to July 28.

While CCM cited procedural delays as the cause, some political commentators believe the decision was driven by concerns over potential defections by disgruntled aspirants.

Dr George Kahangwa, a political science lecturer at the University of Dar es Salaam, said the party may have feared a backlash but warned that defections could not be prevented entirely.

“Even if you delay the timetable, those planning to leave will still go. We saw this happen in 2015 when a senior politician defected from CCM to the opposition, although the impact was not as great as expected,” he said.

He added that if there are complaints about the vetting process, particularly of a technical nature, the party should address them thoroughly before announcing final names.

“A serious organisation will not rush to complete the process until it is satisfied that all procedures have been properly followed,” said Dr Kahangwa.