Dar es Salaam. Regional trade and food security could come under pressure as the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) warns that a strengthening El Niño is expected to persist into February 2027, with effects extending across agriculture, fisheries, transport, energy and water resources.
Forecasts from WMO’s Global Producing Centres show a nearly 100 percent likelihood that El Niño will persist through February 2027, reflecting strong agreement among climate forecasting centres.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres said unusually warm sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific were expected to drive the phenomenon to a very strong intensity before peaking towards the end of this year, with impacts continuing into 2027. “El Niño is being supersized before our eyes. The science leaves no room for doubt: the planet is in uncharted waters, and those waters are heating up,” he said.
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said droughts and floods were already disrupting communities and warned that the impacts could worsen as El Niño intensifies.
“This exceptional El Niño demands exceptional preparation and response,” she said.
Ms Saulo said WMO was working with national meteorological and hydrological services, the United Nations and humanitarian organisations to provide climate information to support disaster management and sectors vulnerable to weather shocks.
Agriculture, health, energy and water resources are among the sectors expected to require closer monitoring and preparedness as the phenomenon develops.
The warning comes as governments and businesses across the region face the potential for weather-related disruptions to food production, transport networks and supply chains.
WMO said its latest assessment was based on forecasts from its network of Global Producing Centres and called for early action to protect lives and livelihoods.
