Admitting Somalia in the East African Community will be a mistake

It was a mistake to the two fragile states, South Sudan and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) in 2016 and 2022, respectively in the East African Community. The EAC is about to make another mistake, this time, by admitting another fragile state, Somalia. Apparently, the EAC is prepared to admit any state that meets the “geographical proximity” criterion, regardless of how fragile the state might be. This criterion requires that a country applying for membership share a border with a member of the EAC.

A good broad measure of state fragility that is available at present is the one produced annually by the Fund for Peace (an NGO), called the Fragile State Index (FSI), formerly, the Failed State Index. The 2022 FSI ranks Somalia, South Sudan, and the DRC among the top six most fragile states in the world. According to the FSI, these countries are currently the top three most fragile countries in Africa, in the order listed.

Although the EAC is already poised to welcome Somalia as a member, it would be a mistake, no matter how the EAC officials and political leaders want to paint the picture. The EAC secretary general has argued that Somalia “will bring immense benefits for the EAC through the exploitation of Somalia’s blue economy resources such as fish.” However, notwithstanding that South Sudan and the DRC are already members of the EAC and that, for Somalia, it is just a matter of time, none of these countries meet the pre-requisites for membership.

High up among the pre-requisites is “adherence to universally acceptable principles of good governance, democracy, the rule of law, observance of human rights and social justice.” Now, of course, “good governance” is an elastic term that can be stretched and twisted to fit one’s interpretation.

It will be interesting to hear what the verification mission sent to Somalia will report.

Admitting Somalia to join the EAC would be both unwise and unnecessary. The country is too unstable and lacks institutional capacity to function adequately in a dynamic regional economic bloc like the EAC. Moreover, Somalia is home to the Al Shabaab terrorist group. It would be irresponsible, if not suicidal, to allow the free movement of people between Somalia and EAC countries.

From an economic point of view, Somalia doesn’t need to be a member of the EAC for it to continue, or even to grow, trade relations with the current EAC member countries. Somalia is a member of the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), of which Kenya and Uganda are also members. Somalia is also a member the International Conference on the Great Lakes Region (ICGLR), of which all current members of the EAC are also members. One might ask, what is it that current EAC countries think they can do in and with Somalia, that they currently can’t do through these two other regional blocs? The answer is, nothing. Somalia is not a safe place to do business. It is that simple. That will not change simply by admitting Somalia into the EAC. It is not as if the EAC has a road map or the means to help Somalia become a stable state.

Of course, the admission of Somalia into the EAC will be touted by EAC leaders as a sign of the strength of the bloc. They will talk about the population and the economic and geographical size of the expanded bloc. In reality, the admission of these fragile states into the EAC is a step in the wrong direction. It diverts attention away from what actually needs to be done, which is to implement current agreements and deepen integration among existing members.

Here is a prediction. If Somalia is admitted into the EAC, the next in line will most likely be Sudan. In 2011, just a few months before South Sudan seceded from Sudan to become an independent state, Sudan applied to join the EAC. Sudan’s application was quickly rejected on the grounds that it did not meet the “geographical proximity” criterion. Since South Sudan is a member of the EAC and shares a border with Sudan, the “geographical proximity” criterion is no longer a barrier.

And, of course, no one can genuinely claim that Sudan’s institutions are not mature enough to join the EAC when the DRC, South Sudan, and, apparently, Somalia, have met the minimum requirements.