Of opposition leaders and their longevity in political office

NCCR Mageuzi, one of the oldest political parties of the multiparty era, is going through turmoil as the party’s national leadership is bitterly contested with accusations and counter-accusations flying around. If anything, this state of affairs is depressingly familiar when it comes to opposition parties. There is another aspect of opposition politics that the Renaissance Italian political philosopher, Niccolò Machiavelli would have appreciated: the longevity of party chairpersons’ terms in office.

The current chairpersons of leading opposition parties, which were founded in the early years of multiparty politics, have been in their positions for more than two decades and counting. They have better name recognition than most ministers or ordinary parliamentarians. Those who vacated their positions willingly, either by retiring or giving up their position for a more formidable or famous political character, after serving for a few years are firmly in the minority. The majority of party chairpersons who ended up on the exit door after few years in office were pushed there by protracted leadership disputes.

What could possibly explain this longevity?

Could it be the share of votes a political party receives during elections? From the first general election in 1995, the leading opposition political parties are long past their prime. NCCR Mageuzi which shook the political field on the Mainland, and the Civic United Front (CUF) which performed so well in Zanzibar and some unexpected places on the Mainland regarding the share of votes cast in that election are almost shadows of their former selves today. The share of their votes during elections have declined over the years since 1995 but they are among political parties with the longest serving party chairpersons.

Could it be the swelling numbers of new party members? This is a notoriously difficult aspect to ascertain. Political parties and their leaders issue wild claims from time to time regarding the strength of their parties with regard to membership numbers. However, almost all opposition parties claim their members are in the millions, and spread throughout the country. These numbers are rarely translated into actual political support through votes cast in favour of their candidates throughout the country during elections.

Could it be the number of elected representatives? This is the easiest angle to measure the success or failure of a party chairperson’s leadership. From that first multiparty general election in 1995, there are parties which managed to win constituencies around the country, or gain a notable political foothold through the numbers of councilors on their party tickets elected, or increase their presence throughout the country during local government elections. However, this too, may not be a sure way to understand the longevity of party chairpersons because, there are parties which succeeded in increasing their number of members of parliament in one general election, only for the seats to be lost in the next round of voting or worse, before that through internal party strife.

This has not translated into party chairpersons being shown the exit door. Given the uneven nature of the political field, they have had a lot of reasons to explain such reversal of political fortunes which have almost always been beyond them. That way, they are blameless for whatever failures they encounter on the political field.

Could it be the psyche of party members and supporters? This could be the most important factor for the longevity of party chairpersons coupled with very weak and poor internal party processes. Regardless of how a political party performs during a particular election, the party leadership that is keen to identify their key constituents and keep them engaged is more likely to survive the longest. NCCR Mageuzi of the 1990s which brought with it a political storm did not have a loyal political constituent the same way CUF of the same era had.

The political personalities-real or imaginary-of party chairpersons are fused with the psyche of party members and supporters to the point any change in party leadership, however democratic as far as party mechanisms are concerned, will be resisted for fear of weakening their party by allowing strong challengers to incumbent chairpersons.

The uneven nature of internal party politics is justified by members or supporters who do not consider that to be a blemish on their party’s democratic credentials but a necessary evil to guarantee its stability or whatever political success in the days ahead.

The metrics of failure or success for the ruling party chairperson are more or less straightforward. The same cannot be said of opposition parties’ chairpersons. From this end, being an opposition party chairperson is one of the safest jobs around despite the tumultuous nature of opposition party politics.