When former presidents becomes de facto opposition leaders

Former South Africa’s president Jacob Zuma repudiated his party, the African National Congress (ANC), declaring that he will be supporting a newly formed opposition party in next year’s election. While the news caused a stir, it may not have the desired outcome of denting the ANC’s political fortune, as it is a party that has been in its own decline for decades now.

It has not worked elsewhere in Africa including South Africa itself.

Zuma’s predecessor in office, Thabo Mbeki was sent into early retirement because of bitter, factional party politics.

A new opposition party came to life, with rumours at the time claiming that he would be joining it. That never materialized. The ANC stumbled on.

In some countries which are still dominated by political parties or liberation movements which delivered political independence, it is no longer strange for a former president to denounce their successor in office or support the opposition outright.

Zimbabwe’s former strongman refused to support the ruling party, ZANU-PF, in elections following his acrimonious removal from power by his comrades. He was a bitter man to the end but his refusal to support his party did not mean he supported the opposition. And in any case, he was not the right person to lead the charge against ZANU-PF.

In Botswana, Ian Khama announced that he was leaving the ruling party, Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) following falling out with his successor, Mokgweetsi Masisi. The BDP has ruled Botswana since independence, and Khama’s support for an opposition party did not lead to any significant dent in its political fortunes.

Angola’s former president Eduardo dos Santos failed in his succession calculations. His hand-picked successor in office sidelined him in efforts to shore up his own political fortunes. The new man waged war against corruption, largely targeting his predecessor’s family and their business interests. They did not support the ruling party, MPLA during elections.

In Tanzania, there is no equivalent of this. However, former prime minister Edward Lowassa’s departure from CCM for the opposition after the fallout of 2015 come close. There is also Maalim Seif Shariff Hamad’s agitation for political pluralism in the late 1980s which ended with him being a titan of opposition politics in the decades that followed.

There have also been rumours from time to time, of CCM’s bigwigs decamping to the opposition following intra-party elections or primaries disagreements. These have never been successful in dislodging CCM from power.

In the parts of Africa where independence parties or liberation movements have long been relegated to the dustbins of history, it is not strange for a former president or an outgoing president supporting a presidential candidate that does not come from the political outfit that is in power.

In Kenya’s migratory politics, this is not strange. In countries where it is possible for a president and their deputy to come from different parties, such Malawi, it would not be a surprise. It would not be a surprise too, in countries like Ghana or Nigeria where a political godson or goddaughter veers-off the political path paved by their political godfathers or godmothers.

This is in sharp contrast to the part of Africa still dominated by political parties and liberation movements from a different time. Africa’s longest ruling parties are known for their collective, consensus style of politics. Successions are managed by considering many factors which ensures the longevity of the party in power.

This is why even when a former president supports an opposition outfit, it is not viewed enthusiastically. The supposed political support from a former president is not what it seems. Often times, it is not about reforming their countries, instead it is about party politics and the desire to matter again.

Many of these former presidents refused to support ruling parties because they ended up with legal or political troubles once they were out of office. Unfortunately, their record in power is not something opposition parties can point to and argue that things were better during their time in office.

They are no messiahs for change or improvement.

Though it is a strange thing to hear a former president speaking like a de facto opposition leader, the public disagreements provide insights into the workings of these political misfits which liberated their countries.