Party hopping and the threat of voter apathy

Dar es Salaam. What will happen if voters in Tanzania become disenchanted with the country’s political processes – with more and more staying away from polling stations, no longer believing in the value of democratic elections?

Waves of opposition politicians are abandoning ‘their’ parties ostensibly to start a new political life in the ruling Chama cha Mapinduzi (CCM), giving reasons that are as flimsy as they’re unconvincing.

One of the latest prominent defectors is Civic United Front (C UF) leader Julius Mtatiro who jumped ship to the ruling party at the weekend, citing his admiration of President John Magufuli’s leadership.

ACT-Wazalendo party leader Zitto Kabwe, Member of Parliament for the Kigoma-Urban constituency says while he respects the party hoppers’ constitutional right to switch allegiances, he nonetheless warns that ‘the migration’ may endanger national security.

‘It (disenchants) citizens, making the citizenry dislike politics,” Mr Kabwe posted on Twitter recently.

Voter abstention – which means not voting, and being really smug about it – is already discernible in recent by-elections, a phenomenon which some analysts attribute to opposition politicians decamping to the ruling party. Then, almost automatically, CCM sponsors them in the resulting by-elections.

But, there are fears that the veteran ruling party may be shooting itself in the ‘political’ foot, pray – making matters worse for itself in the imminent general ellection.

The great trek

To-date, almost 70 opposition cadres, including councillors and MPs, have defected to CCM – with the main political opposition party Chadema the hardest hit, losing some 50 stalwart members to CCM.

MPs who have defected to CCM are Julius Kalanga (Monduli constituency), Mwita Waitara (Ukonga), Godwin Mollel (Siha) and Maulid Mtulia (Kinondoni) all from Chadema and CUF.

Liwale constituency MP Zubery Kachauka (CUF) followed in Mtatiro’s political footsteps three days later.

On the other hand, CCM lost just Lazaro Nyalandu (Singida North) who decamped to Chadema.

Three reasons are given for defecting. There are those – like Mtulia and Mollel, among many – who claimed utter satisfaction with President John Magufuli’s performance.

Others, like Waitara, claimed to have been blamed within their (former) parties for collaborating with the government in development activities in their constituencies.

The third group is that of the likes of Nyalandu who claimed to have joined Chadema to be part of the movement that seeks rewriting of the Union constitution.

Accusations have been made that defectors to CCM are ‘bought.’ Surprisingly enough, these have not been investigated.

Many see the reason given by Nyalandu to be substantial considering the government’s inflexible stand that a New Constitution is not its priority.

Writing is on the wall

However, signs of the voter apathy are already appearing.

For example, voter apathy was evident in the Singida-North, Songea-Urban and Longido constituency by-elections on January 13, 2018 which recorded pathetically-low voter turnout.

Only 110,883 out of the 278,167 total registered voters voted in the three constituencies, while 167,284 didn’t vote: 60.14 per cent of the registered total!

The February 27, 2018 Siha constituency by-election was also not spared, as only 32,277 voters (58.35 per cent) cast their ballots out of the 55,313 registered voters.

Voter apathy in the Kinondoni constituency by-election the same day broke records of sorts, as only 45,454 voters (17.2 per cent) of the total registered voters turned up to vote.

Legitimacy in crisis

People have different views on this trend, with some blaming lack of credibility in the National Electoral Commission (NEC) for it.

A seasoned columnist, Prof Zulfiqarali Premji, for example, attributes the trend to disillusionment, indifference, a sense of futility on the part of the electorate. This includes the perception – right or wrong – that one’s vote won’t make any difference to the outcome.

However, the professor warns against the trend, arguing that democracy is an opportunity, and a ‘lost’ electoral vote is ‘a terrible thing.’

“Indeed,” he writes “government legitimacy is called into question if less than a majority of the eligible voters cast their votes.”

Democratic governance provides what he calls “the best practical check on domination by the elite few…”

A University of Dar es Salaam (UDsm) political scientist, Dr Richard Mbunda, agrees with Prof Premji.

“Self-disfranchisement is disastrous for both the electorate and the government. The latter will have no legitimacy, while the former will be governed by policies they haven’t consented to.

“While the people may have lost the opportunity to hold officials accountable, the consequences that [may face] the illegitimate regime may be far worse than those [faced by] the people,” argues Mbunda.

Anger as a punishing tool

Mbunda’s views are nevertheless contrary to those held by another political scientist from the Open University of Tanzania (OUT), Dr Salim Hamad, who argues that voters may be angered by the defections. But, “I don’t think it can affect the coming General Elections.”

Hamad explains that people abstaining from voting is a normal thing worldwide – although “it is unhealthy.”

This is because an election is an opportunity for citizens to determine their country’s destiny by either agreeing or disagreeing with certain policies. If their destiny is shaped by a few voters, then they get a failed state!

On legitimacy, Hamad agrees that an election whereby few voters participate may politically be illegitimate. But, “over time, legitimacy can be restored, depending on how the leadership connects with the people.”

However, Prof Mbunda argues that, once legitimacy is lost, it’s lost forever – and civil disobedience, havoc, sabotage, etc., will be the result of being ruled by an illegitimate government.

He emphasizes the need to take deliberate steps to avoid doing things that would estrange voters, make them shun polling stations. Failure to instill a sense of ownership of the government in the electorate may breed rebellion, he says.

“Disharmony in communities may complicate the task of maintaining law and order. “An illegitimate regime can make the people ungovernable, thus protracting the government’s efforts to bring development to an uncooperative citizenry,” Mbunda concludes.

Reforming electoral laws

One way that can help placate angry voters could arguably be that offered recently under the umbrella of the Tanzania Constitution Forum which proposes changes in some regulatory frameworks ahead of local government elections next year, and the general elections in 2010.

The Forum’s chairman, Mr Hebron Mwakagenda, was recently quoted as saying that “the Forum [stresses] the need for political leaders to be allowed to ‘cross the floor’ from one party to another without losing their (electoral) posts.”

On the other hand, Prof Premji urges Tanzanians not to abstain from voting no matter what the reason.

After all, it is only through voting that citizens can draw upon their collective strength and force their elite competitors to agree to some sort of cooperative relationship, the good professor explains.

Clearly, he believes that this can never happen if deliberate efforts to coordinate the citizens’ actions are not seriously taken care of by strengthening democratic institutions.

“Democratic institutions – such as elections, the law and a truly free press, along with their ideals of political equality and individual freedom – should be organized in such a way that they facilitate the people’s collective strength. This would help them to make informed decisions on matters that affect their lives as a people,” Prof. Premji says.