Experts’ take on Twaweza research

Experienced researcher, Mr Aidan Eyakuze.PHOTO|FILE

What you need to know:

Do you see any connection between the problems people have listed and their perception of leadership, be it personal (individuals) or institutional (parties)?

The Citizen on Sunday sought views from experienced researcher, Mr Aidan Eyakuze on the research results published by twaweza. here is what he said;

1. What is your general assessment of the research results? The general message which the research sends to the public?

The research results are, as always with the Sauti za Wananchi surveys, very insightful and help us to enrich our understanding of public opinion in Tanzania.

The instinct for politicians and other commentators to treat them as predictions of what will happen 12 months from now is strong, but misleading. We have a year to the elections, which is an eternity in politics. Much can change during that time, including the emergence of candidates who are currently invisible, that could completely change the nature of the political competition.

For me, the key message from citizens is “We have not made up our minds. We are open to persuasion. Come talk to us some more!”

2. Will the ‘undecided’ people sway the results of the presidential/parliamentary nominations? In which way?

Wooing the undecided could be a feature of political parties nomination strategies in two closely related ways. First, parties might ask themselves, ‘Is our portfolio of candidates (presidential, parliamentary, ward) appealing to the voters?” This ultimately speaks to the overall vision and message they want to sell to voters. Second, “Can our candidates beat the opponents they will face?”

Their sheer numbers is the most important factor. Thirty three per cent of a potentially 25 million registered voters is 8.25 million votes up for grabs. In 2010, 7.9 million people cast parliamentary votes and 8.6 million cast presidential votes, so today’s undecided voters are equal in number to almost all of those who voted in 2010.

But the undecided citizens will only affect the election results if they actually get out and vote on election day in 2015.

3. Do you see any connection between the problems people have listed and their perception of leadership, be it personal (individuals) or institutional (parties)?

I think there is a close connection between citizens’ approval of their leaders performance and the issues raised as being important. Approval ratings across all leadership levels have fallen at the same time as citizens’ worries about the economy, health and education services have increased. This is suggesting that citizens’ expectations that leaders will address their most important concerns are not being met in reality. It goes beyond personalities or institutions.

4. Does the research results give CCM any assurance that it is going to win in next years’ elections? Why?

These results should not give any party any assurance of victory or loss. They are a snapshot of public opinion at a particular moment in Tanzania’s history, and that opinion can be changed by events that shape ordinary people’s lived experience and their expectations for the immediate and long term future. What the political parties do in the next 12 months, will be almost more important for their electoral fortunes, as what they say.

5. As a researcher, what is your assessment of the research? i.e the use of static sample vs picking different sample for each issue.

This is a technical question. Is a random sample more likely to give more robust (bias-free) results than what appears to be a large, nationally representative focus group? To put it more practically, would a different group of randomly selected Tanzanians have a very different set of views? Luckily we have a counter-check. The Pew Global Attitudes Survey polled 1,016 randomly selected adult Tanzanians in April-May 2014. It found that 88 per cent of Tanzanians said lack of employment opportunities was a “very big” problem.

, followed by rising prices (84%), and the gap between rich and poor (77%). These findings are close to the worries about the economy and poverty that the Twaweza survey found.