Electoral journey: Three decades of hope, hurdles and hard lessons

For many stakeholders—especially opposition parties, civil society groups, and ordinary citizens—the journey has highlighted a consistent demand: an independent electoral commission and a new constitution.

The multi-party era began with the 1977 constitutional amendments and the 1992 Political Parties Act.

However, elections from 1995 to 2020 were overseen by the National Electoral Commission (NEC), which critics argue lacked impartiality due to its composition.

All NEC commissioners, including the Chairperson and the Director, are appointed by the President, who has always come from the ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) since independence in 1961. To address these concerns, Parliament passed a new election law in 2024, renaming the NEC as the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC).

However, the core structure remains largely unchanged, with presidential appointments still determining the Commission’s leadership—a point critics argue undermines any claim to genuine independence.

Since 1995, four individuals have chaired the electoral body: Judges Lewis Makame, Damian Lubuva, Semistocles Kaijage, and the current chair, Judge Jacobs Mwambelege. While INEC is expected to oversee the 2025 election, public trust remains fragile.

Past elections have been marred by politically motivated violence, including abductions, killings, and torture. Opposition candidates have faced disqualification on grounds such as alleged illiteracy, and party agents have occasionally been barred from accessing polling stations.

A notable disruption occurred in 2005 when the death of Chadema’s vice-presidential candidate, Jumbe Rajabu Jumbe, forced the postponement of the election, extending President Benjamin Mkapa’s term beyond its expiry.

From rising competition to shrinking space

The first multi-party general election in 1995 was relatively competitive, with 13 political parties fielding parliamentary candidates and four entering the presidential race.

CCM’s Benjamin Mkapa won with 61.82 percent of the vote, followed by Augustino Mrema of NCCR-Mageuzi with 27.77 percent. Only four parties—CCM, CUF, NCCR-Mageuzi, and Chadema—won seats in Parliament. In 2000, Mkapa strengthened CCM’s grip with 71.74 percent of the vote.

In 2005, Jakaya Kikwete achieved the most decisive win in Tanzanian history, securing 80.28 percent.

However, that momentum did not last. By 2010, Kikwete’s popularity had dropped significantly—he won with 62.83 percent, while Chadema’s Dr Wilbroad Slaa earned 27.05 percent amid widespread allegations of electoral malpractice. The 2015 election brought a new wave of energy with the formation of Ukawa, a coalition of four opposition parties—Chadema, CUF, NCCR-Mageuzi, and NLD.  Their joint candidate was former Prime Minister Edward Lowassa, who had defected from CCM.

Although CCM’s John Magufuli won with 58.46 percent, the opposition gained ground in Parliament for the first time, despite Ukawa not being legally registered as a coalition.

However, that progress was short-lived.  In 2020, Magufuli secured re-election with a sweeping 84.4 percent, while Chadema’s Tundu Lissu garnered just over 13 percent.

 Opposition parties experienced a dramatic decline in parliamentary representation. CCM won 256 constituency seats and 94 special seats, while Chadema managed only one constituency seat and 19 special seats—though the party disowned the latter, claiming the MPs entered Parliament without its consent.

A pivotal election without Chadema

This year’s general election will be the first under the INEC and the 2024 election law, which has removed the controversial clause that allowed unopposed candidates to win automatically.

The polls will also take place under the leadership of President Samia Suluhu Hassan, CCM’s presidential candidate, who is seeking a second term with Ambassador Emmanuel Nchimbi as her running mate. Her candidacy follows the passing of President Magufuli in March 2021.

However, the 2025 race is unfolding under intense political strain. Chadema, Tanzania’s largest opposition party, has withdrawn from the process after refusing to sign the electoral code of conduct.

Under the rallying cry “No Reforms, No Election,” the party is demanding significant structural changes, including the establishment of a genuinely independent electoral body, before it can participate.

Further complicating the atmosphere is the detention of Tundu Lissu, Chadema’s 2020 presidential candidate, who is currently facing treason charges.  While 18 other political parties have signed the electoral code, some have voiced concerns over what they describe as restrictive provisions that limit meaningful participation.

Despite a fourfold increase in registered voters, voter turnout remains low.