The reversal has been most dramatic in Africa. Between 2015 and 2019, African countries received $30 billion in new loans from China. By 2020–2024, the continent was sending $22 billion back, a $52 billion swing.
Johannesburg. African nations are now paying more to China in debt repayments than they receive in fresh loans, a new analysis by ONE Data shows, highlighting a major shift in the continent’s financing landscape.
The inaugural report by the ONE Data initiative found that many low- and middle-income countries, especially in Africa, have seen Chinese lending fall sharply over the past decade, while obligations to repay existing debt continue to rise.
“The fact that there’s less new lending coming in, but that previous loans from China still need to be serviced — that’s the source of the outflows,” said David McNair, executive director at ONE Data.
The reversal has been most dramatic in Africa. Between 2015 and 2019, African countries received $30 billion in new loans from China. By 2020–2024, the continent was sending $22 billion back, a $52 billion swing.
At the same time, multilateral institutions have increased their role in development finance. Net financing from these institutions rose 124 percent over the past decade and now accounts for 56 percent of net flows, equivalent to $379 billion between 2020 and 2024, according to the analysis.
The ONE Data report warns that the decline in Chinese lending, coupled with reductions in aid from developed countries, has left African governments facing tighter budgets.
The closure of the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) in 2025 and drops in allocations from other donor countries have already affected developing economies across the continent.
“Once 2025 data becomes available, it is likely to show a sharp fall in Official Development Assistance flows,” said McNair.
He added that the trend represents a net negative for African nations, making it harder for governments to fund public services and investments. At the same time, he said, the reduced reliance on external financing may encourage greater domestic accountability.
The report also noted a broader decline in bilateral finance flows and private external debt, trends likely to worsen following the aid reductions in 2025.
