El Nino fears rise among flood prone communities in Tanzania

Zanzibar, Dar es Salaam and Upcountry. With about 20 days left before the onset of rains forecast to be associated with El Nino, the Tanzania Meteorological Authority (TMA) says the threat remains high, while residents in flood-prone areas say their fears are growing because they have nowhere safe to relocate.

TMA says the rains are expected to begin in the last week of September in areas around Lake Victoria, including Kagera, Geita, Mwanza, Shinyanga and Mara.

According to the forecast, the rains are expected to reach the Coast and north-eastern highlands from the first week of October. These areas include Arusha, Manyara, Kilimanjaro, Tanga, Coast Region, Dar es Salaam, northern Morogoro, northern Kigoma and Zanzibar, including Pemba and Unguja.

The authority says the rains are expected to continue through December, while other areas that normally receive seasonal rains, including Ruvuma, Iringa, Njombe, Mbeya, Songwe, Mtwara, Lindi, Dodoma, Tabora, Singida, Katavi and parts of Morogoro and Kigoma, could receive rains earlier than usual because of El Nino.

Speaking to The Citizen on September 10, 2026, TMA meteorologist Alfred Kondowe said forecasts indicate that the rise in sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean associated with El Nino could reach 3.0 degrees Celsius in November, compared with 2.2 degrees Celsius recorded during previous El Nino events.

Mr Kondowe said the conditions could contribute to heavier rains in areas that normally receive short rains, urging residents and institutions to use weather forecasts to prepare early rather than wait for the effects to occur.

“El Nino is not a new phenomenon. TMA has been monitoring its development and providing information so that the public and different sectors can take early action,” he said.

Mr Kondowe said the forecast was not intended to frighten the public, but to help people make timely decisions and reduce the effects of heavy rains.

He urged residents to begin taking simple measures, including clearing drainage channels, removing waste that blocks the flow of water, strengthening houses and moving important belongings away from areas that could be reached by floodwater.

Residents say they have nowhere to go

The warning has, however, highlighted concerns among residents living in high-risk areas, who say they understand the danger but lack the financial means or alternative places to relocate.

Tegeta Darajani in Dar es Salaam is among the areas where residents still remember the floods of 2024.

For some residents, the El Nino forecast is more than a routine weather warning. It reminds them of nights when floodwater entered their homes, swept away property and forced some families to seek shelter with neighbours.

“We have nowhere to go. If El Nino comes, we will die here,” residents say, adding that they have been waiting for lasting measures to address flooding without seeing a reliable solution.

Christina Kitundu, a resident of the area, said the 2024 floods caused extensive damage, with some houses swept away and residents losing their lives.

“The situation was really serious in 2024. As you can see, some houses were swept away and some of our neighbours lost their lives. The biggest problem here in Tegeta Darajani is that there is no proper channel for the water to flow because of inadequate infrastructure, so it ends up flowing towards people’s homes,” she said.

Another resident, Maulid Shabani Sungata, said the bridge embankments had not been built to a standard that gave residents confidence during heavy rains.

“During a period like this, when we hear that there will be El Nino, our safety is very uncertain. My family and I cannot sleep peacefully, and we cannot leave because we have nowhere to go,” he said.

In Kilimanjaro Region, some residents of Viwanda Street in Njoro Ward, Moshi Municipality, say they have nowhere to go because of the investments they have made in the area and the cost of finding new homes.

The street chairman, William Kavishe, said he had advised residents to relocate, but many were unwilling to leave.

“I have tried to tell people to move, but they do not want to leave. The Government should come and meet these residents and educate them because many houses have been affected by floodwater. If there is heavy rain, I do not think they will be safe,” he said.

A resident, Isaack Kabengwa, said they had decided to prepare themselves mentally because they could not afford to start their lives elsewhere.

“For us, it is about preparing ourselves mentally. There is nothing we can do because we have nowhere to go,” he said.

Agata Pius said many residents could not afford to move and rent houses elsewhere.

“We cannot afford to do anything. If we leave, where will we go? It is true that the Government is urging us to do so, but we have no option. If the Government takes us to a safe place, that would be fine,” she said.

Similar concerns have been reported in Monduli and Simanjiro districts in Arusha, where some residents say they fear losing their homes and property but cannot move without alternative land being provided.

Jamal Kassim, a Monduli resident, said they faced the effects of flooding during every rainy season but lacked the means to relocate.

“We know that heavy rain could cause serious damage, but we cannot move because we have nowhere to go. This is where we built our homes and where we live. If the Government wants us to move, it should help us find safe places,” he said.

Neema Saitoti said relocating could affect her income because her daily activities depended on the area where she lived.

“I work here and earn an income for my family. If I move, I do not know what I will do wherever I am taken,” she said.

Shabani Hamis, a resident of Msikitini Street in the small town of Mirerani, Manyara Region, said local government leaders had visited the area and advised residents to prepare for the El Nino rains.

“The challenge is that we are being told to move away from low-lying areas, yet we do not have the money to build elsewhere. Previously, the Government gave us plots and told us to build and move there,” he said.

Residents of Tangasisi Street in Tangasisi Ward, Tanga City, said they feared major flooding during the expected rains and called for urgent measures, including the construction of drainage channels.

“When it rains, we are really at risk. We are living in fear, waiting to see what will happen. Even today, when we saw the rain starting, we realised that the problem had begun again. We have been living with frogs because when you go downstairs, you find snakes that have been driven out by the water and frogs,” said Mohamedi Ally, a Tangasisi resident.

Tangasisi Street has more than 2,000 residents. Seventeen houses were affected by floods last year, causing losses to residents.

In Mbeya Region, some residents in Itezi and Lupepo say their limited financial means have prevented them from moving from homes located on hillsides and in low-lying areas. They are calling on the Government to help them prepare for the El Nino rains.

Vitalis Mwampamba, a resident of Lupepo village, said that although some people had left the area, others could not because they had nowhere else to go or livelihoods to pursue.

“Where would we go and what would we do? Those who left had other places to go and left their farms here for agriculture and livestock keeping. Some of us have nowhere else to go. The Government should help us,” Mr Mwampamba said.

Morogoro, Mwanza and Geita

In Morogoro Region, residents in some high-risk areas have begun taking precautionary measures, while others say they cannot afford to relocate.

Aziz Msuya, a resident of Kihonda B, said his family had nowhere else to go and that he had started preparing for the rains.

“This is my home. I have nowhere to go at short notice. I pray that the rains do not cause harm, but I have already prepared myself mentally to deal with them,” he said.

Tabu Juma of Tushikamane, Lukobe, said he had built a wall to prevent floodwater from entering his home and moved important belongings, including family documents, to places where they would not be damaged by water.

In Geita Region, some local leaders have started educating residents about the risks, with Regional Commissioner Alexander Mnyeti directing district commissioners to ensure that people living in low-lying areas are relocated and educated about the effects of El Nino.

Mbugani Street chairman Jumanne Bayasabe said they had started providing information through public meetings and other community activities.

The advice includes moving away from low-lying areas, clearing drainage channels, cutting down trees close to houses, keeping torches and power banks and ensuring neighbours can communicate during emergencies.

In Mwanza, a resident of Mkuyuni, Silole Miraji, said the area flooded again after heavy rains despite the construction of the Mkuyuni bridge.

“Water spread as far as Butimba Hospital. So we do not know whether things will be the same this time or whether we will be safe,” he said.

In Musoma Municipality, Mara Region, Gadi Mrosso said residents had been advised at a street meeting to take precautions, while those living in high-risk areas had been told to leave.

“The challenge I see here is that some people live right by the lake, where water often enters their homes when it rains. Although they have been told to move, they continue to live in those areas,” he said.

Zanzibar residents prepare to move

A resident of Jang’ombe, Fatria Abbas, said protecting lives should come before property.

“We will leave if disaster strikes because life cannot be bought. It is better to struggle for a short time than lose your life,” she said.

The Sheha of Mtumwajeni Shehia, Rajab Ali Ngauchwa, said the Government was not forcing residents to leave, but was continuing to educate them so that they could relocate voluntarily.

The Executive Director of the Zanzibar Disaster Management Commission, Makame Khatib Makame, said the Government was continuing to prepare facilities and equipment to deal with the possible effects of the rains.

Experts urge early preparation

Disaster management, health, agriculture and fire and rescue experts have urged residents to take precautions before the rains intensify.

The director of the Sukos Kova Foundation's Disaster Management Institute, Suleiman Kova, said people living in low-lying areas and near rivers should move to safer areas early.

He said councils should not wait for disasters to occur before looking for emergency equipment and supplies.

Fire and Rescue Force Public Relations Officer Inspector Damian Muheya urged motorists and pedestrians to exercise caution when using roads during rainfall and avoid crossing areas with large amounts of water without first assessing the depth and speed of the current.

“I urge residents not to cross areas where water has accumulated simply by judging it with their eyes. It is better to wait until the water level falls before crossing,” he said.

He said the Fire and Rescue Force was continuing with drills at its stations to prepare for floods and other disasters.

By Imani Makongoro, Mariam Mbwana (Dar es Salaam), Hamida Shariff (Morogoro), Janeth Mushi (Arusha), Joseph Lymo (Manyara), Mbonea Herman (Tanga), Geofrey Chubwa (Geita), Jesse Mikofu (Zanzibar), Janeth Joseph (Kilimanjaro), Beldina Nyakeke (Mara) and Sadam Sadick (Mbeya).