New piracy fears as Nato pulls out of Indian Ocean

Nairobi. To the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (Nato), time is ripe to withdraw from the Indian Ocean because it has become calmer than at any one time in the last six years. So, Nato officially withdrew its military personnel from fighting piracy on the Indian Ocean on Wednesday.

For local importers, however, uncertainty prevails as to the continued suppression of Somali piracy in the regional waters.

It was only six years ago that piracy on the Indian Ocean was a spectre looming large over eastern Africa. The global economy was also taking an estimated $18 billion (Sh36 trillion) hit from Somali piracy.

Tourist numbers dwindled. Insurance and the cost of imported goods rose as shippers started approaching the regional ports with caution, sometimes taking roundabout routes to avoid the Horn of Africa. According to a recent report, 1,068 attacks have been carried out by Somali pirates between January 2005 and 2013.

Of these, 218 resulted in successful hijacking with an estimated $53 million average annual ransom paid. Between 82 and 97 casualties are believed to have occurred as a result of these attacks.

Attacks peaked in 2011, but have declined sharply since, largely because of increased mobilisation of international naval forces and tighter security adopted by the shipping industry. At the end of 2010, about 500 seafarers from more than 18 countries were being held hostage by pirates. Piracy affects the world’s largest trade transport industry. Regional and international players swung into action.

The United Nations Security Council declared piracy an international threat. The United States (US), Nato and the European Union (EU) all launched operations on the Indian Ocean as did a bevy of other countries such as China, South Korea and Japan.

These efforts seem to have worked. Since 2012, there has not been a major pirate attack on the Western Indian Ocean. Four years of calm coincide with self-determined deadlines for some of the major operations on the Western Indian Ocean.

Nato has decided not to renew its mandate to police these waters, citing the relative calm as well as the need to turn its attention to the migration crisis on the Mediterranean Sea and keep the Russians in check on the Black Sea.

While the EU will stay until 2018, the writing is on the wall that, these major multilateral forces are unlikely to stay, especially considering the estimated $323 million bill attached to the maintenance of naval forces on the Indian Ocean.

An imminent reduction in force may cause jitters in some quarters. The International Chamber of Shipping (ICS) has noted that despite the lull, there is a danger of resurgence in Somali piracy and that maintenance of military forces is essential for deterrence.

Already, there are indications that piracy may be facing a resurgence, albeit on a small-scale. In the report, the Oceans Beyond Piracy Organisation noted that there were 15 people held by Somali pirates in 2015 after small regional vessels were attacked.

Nevertheless, analysts point to the unsustainability of relying on foreign naval forces as deterrence against piracy. Rather, they say, the countries in the region need to take ownership of anti-piracy efforts.

The termination of Operation Ocean Shield “sends a clear signal that international navies will not deal with piracy forever.

While the EU fills the gap (and will in the long-run), the regional countries need to develop their own strategies,” says Dr Christian Bueger, a Cardiff University scholar, who has researched the subject of Somali piracy.

He points out that even with ongoing capacity building efforts in Somalia, the country is still far from being able to handle the threat of piracy by itself.

Among the countries that lie on the Indian Ocean, South Africa, India, Pakistan and Kenya as key regional players have a role to play in leading the process to sustainably police piracy. However, national rivalries, between India and Pakistan for instance, may hinder these efforts.

Additionally, national commitment to fighting piracy may be in question. Multilateral organisations such as the Indian Ocean Rim Association and the Contact Group on Piracy also provide avenues for regional cooperation.

Ultimately, though, security on the Western Indian Ocean would be tied to economic opportunities on offer to residents in the region. Countries, therefore, find themselves in a bit of a catch-22 situation.

To secure their waters (the Western Indian Ocean), they must invest in a competitive blue economy, estimated to be worth $22 billion. At the same time, such an economy is reliant on secure waters.

“Maritime authorities must build a safe, secure and sustainable blue economy, rather than simply patrol to check piracy, while failing to tackle poverty and underdevelopment,” writes Timothy Walker, a researcher at the Institute for Security Studies.

Although Nato is packing up and leaving, there still remain a number of global powers patrolling the Western Indian Ocean. Under the guise of tackling piracy, both China and Japan have established bases in Djibouti. South Korea also has its presence there. How willing these countries will be to leave the regional waters is still in question.

“China’s presence also raises pertinent questions about outside powers using the threat of piracy as a pretext for military intervention, or to exercise influence in international relations in the region,” writes Mr Walker. Expected tensions between these nations as well as with the countries that border the Indian Ocean ought to be considered as a serious concern. The Indian Ocean is one of the most important geographical fulcrums for the global economy.

A great proportion of the world’s real economy (commodities and products) hinges on it. The third-largest ocean, after the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans, it covers 68.556 square kilometres and accounts for 20 per cent of the globe’s ocean surface. About 33 per cent of the world’s population live in countries that have a coastline on the Indian Ocean.

Some 66 per cent of world oil shipments, 50 per cent of global container traffic and 33 per cent of bulk cargo pass through it. It has been estimated that 100 000 cargo ships sail through the Indian Ocean every year. Of these, some 20,000 pass through the Suez Canal. In addition, tankers transport about a billion tonnes of crude oil annually – the greater part of it shipped east, to feed India, China and Japan.