Strategies to tame climate change

Arusha. For many Tanzanians, the term ‘climate change’ may not be very clear to many people. To some, the terminology could as well mean change of climate or variability of weather patterns, which is not surprising.

The semantics may not help to define it scientifically, but the “change from the norm” could well explain it. Experts agree that climate change is already affecting livelihoods, creating many challenges and some opportunities for change!

The phenomenon itself is relatively new, having entered the global picture in the late 1980s following alarming climate-induced patterns. Like in many African countries, climate change in Tanzania has been much more associated with severe droughts than floods.

That is not surprising as the phenomenon is associated with global warming, a rapidly increasing temperature over the Earth.

Scientists say the increase in temperature is primarily caused by humans burning fossil fuels, hence the increased emission of greenhouse gases (GHGs). Massive floods, as witnessed during the 1997–98 El Nino rains, are, therefore, not seen as having negatively impacted lives like the droughts.

That is a sufficient indication of the people’s heavy reliance on rain-fed sectors such as agriculture, livestock keeping, and fisheries.

Again, it is not surprising that the poor and rural populations are particularly vulnerable to severe droughts (and floods). In Tanzania, climate change poses another equally serious threat other than direct livelihood of the communities.

It has put much pressure on the natural resources (the carbon sinks) and for which tourism, a key pillar of the economy, relies.

Addressing climate change would, therefore, require bold actions and massive investments across key economic sectors. Experts and other stakeholders say financing adaptation is more cost-effective than frequent disaster relief approaches. One of the approaches is Tanzania Adapts, a wider project to explore the ways in which climate change is affecting people in Tanzania.

This is done through interviewing experts and examining challenges including health, livelihoods, water scarcity, and food insecurity.

The strategy was developed in response to the growing concern about the negative impacts of climate change and climate variability on the country’s social, economic, and physical environments. Its overall aim is to enhance the technical, institutional, and individual capacity of the country to address the impacts of climate change.

The strategy covers adaptation, mitigation, and cross-cutting interventions that will enable Tanzania to benefit from the opportunities available to developing countries in their efforts to tackle climate change.

These opportunities were recognized under the Copenhagen Accord, Cancun Agreement, and Durban Platform for Enhanced Action. They include, among others, technology transfer to developing countries under the proposed Technology Mechanism.

Opportunities are offered through the Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation Plus (REDD+) Mechanism.

The financing instruments once proposed some years back to tame climate change impacts included the Fast Start Climate Fund and Green Climate Fund.

The latter, in particular, was aimed at promoting a paradigm shift towards low emissions and climate-resilient development pathways.

Under this, Tanzania, like other developing countries, would be assisted to limit their GHG emissions and adapt to the impacts of climate change. Implementation of such strategies has been a matter of discussion as it depends entirely on the support of the development partners.

Yet there has been a growing concern over the effects of climate change on agriculture, the environment, energy, and water sources in Tanzania.

Just as is the case in other countries, climate changes have manifested themselves through extreme fluctuations in patterns and magnitudes with respect to atmospheric temperatures, precipitation, or wind.

For instance, in recent years, eastern Africa and the Pangani river basin has suffered various climate- related disasters, ranging from persistent and prolonged droughts. Same and other districts in the Kilimanjaro region have seen devastating rains that have triggered landslides and floods.

These have ravaged farmlands, destroying crops and livestock and threatening the survival of millions of people. Changing rainfall patterns, resulting from global warming, have rendered hectares of arable land useless.

These have, among others, resulted in the emergence of evasive pests and diseases, compounding the threat of food insecurity. With the growing population, the experts envisage even more devastating effects for the area.

The effects of these fluctuations have included changes in the range and distribution of plants and animals, trees blooming earlier, and lengthened growing seasons. Also seen are extreme periods of heat and cold, storms, and an increased prevalence of climate-sensitive diseases such as malaria and wilts in crops.

According to one report, the future is highly complex and uncertain because there are many different stakes at play and conditions change quickly. The country’s economic and political dynamics have to interface with the climatic factors that define the country’s weather-dependent economy.

Tanzania, having been a lead member of the international climate change agenda for years, produced a National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA) in 2007. In 2012, Tanzania produced a national climate change strategy that addressed mitigation, adaptation, and cross-cutting interventions to realise the opportunities available for developing countries in their efforts to tackle climate change. The average annual temperature has increased by 1.0 °C since 1960.

The increase in nighttime temperatures has been much more pronounced than the increase in daytime temperatures. While the number of cold nights has decreased significantly, there has been no discernible decrease in the number of cold days.

Decreases in observed rainfall have been significant, with observations showing annual rainfall decreasing by 2.8 mm per month per decade since 1960.

The greatest annual decrease has occurred in the southern-most parts of Tanzania. The fifth National Report of Tanzania to the UN Convention on Biological Diversity, further described below, found that severe droughts have exerted pressure on biodiversity and ecosystems.

Frequent and prolonged droughts have led to the drying out of water bodies such as rivers, reservoirs, lakes, and wetlands, with a consequent loss of biodiversity. Grazing lands have been diminished, and the electricity supply from hydropower has also been impacted.

There has been a 68 percent decrease in dry season flow in the Mara River since 1972.

A submission by Tanzania to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 2013 identified that currently more than 70 percent of all natural disasters are hydro-meteorologically related.

Both floods and droughts have each had significant and serious impacts on the local and national economies. Average annual temperature is projected to increase by 1.0 to 2.7C by the 2060s.

Therefore, hot days and nights will become increasingly frequent. It is projected that average annual rainfall will increase, but this will be more likely to fall in “heavy” events than in the current climate and so may not contribute to year-round water availability.

In Tanzania, an increase in temperature or rainfall increases the number of cholera cases. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) had projected shortened spring rains by the mid-21st century in Tanzania.

There is a high degree of uncertainty about how the impact of El Nino on Tanzania’s weather will impact climate change.

The National Climate Change Strategy of 2012 outlines findings from the Tanzania Meteorological Agency that some of the previously highly productive areas of Tanzania, such as the southern and northern highlands, will continue to be affected by declining rainfall, frequent droughts, and a significant increase in the spatial and temporal variability of rainfall.

This will have long-term implications in the agricultural sector, including in planning and resource allocation, such as seeds and pesticides, which may result in shifts in types of agricultural produce.

It also notes that while models predict a future expansion in the geographical range of diseases such as malaria, In Tanzania, there are already reported incidences of malaria in highland areas that were traditionally free from mosquitoes and malaria.